Football · Republic of Ireland Premier Division · 18/09, 21:00

Prediction: Bohemians Dublin vs Drogheda United

Team pages: Bohemians Dublin · Drogheda United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.1Total

Bohemians Dublin2.25

Drogheda United0.85

1X2

68% 20% 12%

Bohemians Dublin Draw Drogheda United

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Bohemians Dublin 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LLWWWDLWWW

Drogheda United 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DLLWDDDLLW

Head-to-head

Bohemians Dublin 3–1–2 Drogheda United (6 last)

Drogheda United0-2Bohemians Dublin
Bohemians Dublin2-1Drogheda United
Drogheda United0-0Bohemians Dublin
Drogheda United1-4Bohemians Dublin
Bohemians Dublin0-1Drogheda United
Drogheda United1-0Bohemians Dublin

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bohemians Dublin 1551 · Drogheda United 1477

	Bohemians Dublin	Draw	Drogheda United
Our model	68%	20%	12%
Market	69%	19%	12%

Estimated total (ours) 3.1 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bohemians Dublin (rating 1551 vs 1477).
H2H favours Bohemians Dublin: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bohemians Dublin	Drogheda United
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.5	1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.8	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 6.4	1.9 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.2	3.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.33

X4.75

27.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.98

2 (+1.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.33	Bet365 1.33
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.4%

Time*	1	X	2
14:06 +6’	1.33	4.75	7.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bohemians Dublin 3–1–2 Drogheda United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/07/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	Drogheda United	0-2 HT 0-1	Bohemians Dublin
15/05/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	Bohemians Dublin	2-1 HT 0-0	Drogheda United
03/04/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	Drogheda United	0-0 HT 0-0	Bohemians Dublin
01/11/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	Drogheda United	1-4 HT 1-2	Bohemians Dublin
01/08/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	Bohemians Dublin	0-1 HT 0-0	Drogheda United
23/05/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	Drogheda United	1-0 HT 0-0	Bohemians Dublin

Standings · Republic of Ireland Premier Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Shamrock Rovers	30	16	8	6	46	29	56
2	St Patricks	30	15	8	7	47	25	53
3	Bohemians Dublin	30	15	8	7	53	36	53
4	Dundalk	30	10	11	9	47	46	41
5	Derry City	30	8	13	9	42	40	37
6	Shelbourne	29	8	12	9	37	40	36
7	Galway United	29	8	10	11	38	45	34
8	Waterford FC	30	7	12	11	40	49	33
9	Drogheda United	30	7	10	13	35	48	31
10	Sligo Rovers	30	5	8	17	23	50	23

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bohemians Dublin	Drogheda United
Galway United	3-2 W	0-0 D
Sligo Rovers	3-0 W	2-0 W
Derry City	5-3 W	0-2 L
St Patricks	2-0 W	0-2 L
Shelbourne	3-0 W	2-2 D
Dundalk	1-2 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Bohemians Dublin (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bohemians Dublin

LLWWWDLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Galway United Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-1	3-2	9	5	W
28/08	Sligo Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division	3-0	3-0	5	3	W
21/08	Derry City Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-1	5-3	8	3	W
09/08	Waterford FC Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-3	1-3	7	3	L
02/08	Galway United Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-1	1-1	11	5	D
03/07	Drogheda United Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-0	2-0	2	2	W
26/06	St Patricks Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
22/06	Shelbourne Republic of Ireland Premier Division	2-0	3-0	5	7	W
19/06	Dundalk Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-1	1-2	7	4	L
12/06	Derry City Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-1	1-4	6	5	L

Drogheda United

DLLWDDDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Sligo Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division	2-0	2-0	6	2	W
28/08	Dundalk Republic of Ireland Premier Division	2-1	2-3	5	4	L
21/08	St Patricks Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-1	0-2	2	2	L
07/08	Galway United Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
31/07	Shamrock Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
25/07	Sligo Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-2	2-2	9	3	D
10/07	Dundalk Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-1	2-1	5	2	W
03/07	Bohemians Dublin Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-1	0-2	8	2	L
26/06	Derry City Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-1	0-2	5	4	L
19/06	Shelbourne Republic of Ireland Premier Division	2-1	2-2	2	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bohemians Dublin vs Drogheda United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Bohemians Dublin win (68%). Probabilities: Bohemians Dublin 68%, draw 20%, Drogheda United 12%.

How many goals are expected in Bohemians Dublin vs Drogheda United?

The model expects 3.1 goals (Bohemians Dublin 2.25 · Drogheda United 0.85), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Bohemians Dublin vs Drogheda United?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.