Football · Republic of Ireland Premier Division · 19/09, 20:45

Prediction: Sligo Rovers vs St Patricks

Team pages: Sligo Rovers · St Patricks

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.58Total

Sligo Rovers0.73

St Patricks1.86

1X2

14% 23% 64%

Sligo Rovers Draw St Patricks

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

0-2 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Sligo Rovers 0-4-6 (W-D-L)

LDLLDDLDLL

St Patricks 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WLWDDDWWLW

Head-to-head

Sligo Rovers 1–1–4 St Patricks (6 last)

St Patricks2-0Sligo Rovers
Sligo Rovers1-1St Patricks
St Patricks4-1Sligo Rovers
Sligo Rovers1-0St Patricks
St Patricks3-0Sligo Rovers
Sligo Rovers0-1St Patricks

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sligo Rovers 1442 · St Patricks 1544

	Sligo Rovers	Draw	St Patricks
Our model	13%	24%	63%
Market	14%	22%	64%

Estimated total (ours) 2.58 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours St Patricks (rating 1442 vs 1544).
H2H favours St Patricks: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sligo Rovers	St Patricks
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.9	1.4 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.9 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 3.8	2.8 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.2	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

16.50

X4.20

21.42

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.82

2 (-1.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	1.42 → 1.42	Bet365 1.42

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.6%

Time*	1	X	2
14:23 +1’	6.50	4.20	1.42

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sligo Rovers 1–1–4 St Patricks

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/06/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	St Patricks	2-0 HT 0-0	Sligo Rovers
04/05/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	Sligo Rovers	1-1 HT 1-1	St Patricks
03/04/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	St Patricks	4-1 HT 2-1	Sligo Rovers
27/09/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	Sligo Rovers	1-0 HT 1-0	St Patricks
10/08/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	St Patricks	3-0 HT 0-0	Sligo Rovers
30/05/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	Sligo Rovers	0-1 HT 0-1	St Patricks

Standings · Republic of Ireland Premier Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Shamrock Rovers	30	16	8	6	46	29	56
2	St Patricks	30	15	8	7	47	25	53
3	Bohemians Dublin	30	15	8	7	53	36	53
4	Dundalk	30	10	11	9	47	46	41
5	Derry City	30	8	13	9	42	40	37
6	Shelbourne	29	8	12	9	37	40	36
7	Galway United	29	8	10	11	38	45	34
8	Waterford FC	30	7	12	11	40	49	33
9	Drogheda United	30	7	10	13	35	48	31
10	Sligo Rovers	30	5	8	17	23	50	23

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sligo Rovers	St Patricks
Drogheda United	0-2 L	2-0 W
Bohemians Dublin	0-3 L	0-2 L
Waterford FC	0-0 D	0-2 L
Derry City	0-2 L	1-1 D
Dundalk	1-1 D	1-1 D
Galway United	2-3 L	3-0 W
Shamrock Rovers	1-2 L	2-0 W
Shelbourne	2-2 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 5 L	4 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: St Patricks (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sligo Rovers

LDLLDDLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Drogheda United Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-2	0-2	7	2	L
28/08	Bohemians Dublin Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-3	0-3	4	3	L
21/08	Waterford FC Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
07/08	Derry City Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-0	0-2	2	2	L
31/07	Dundalk Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
25/07	Drogheda United Republic of Ireland Premier Division	2-1	2-2	4	3	D
11/07	Galway United Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-1	2-3	0	4	L
03/07	Shamrock Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-0	1-2	3	6	L
27/06	Shelbourne Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-0	2-2	3	2	D
19/06	St Patricks Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-0	0-2	7	3	L

St Patricks

WLWDDDWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Shamrock Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division	2-0	2-0	1	3	W
28/08	Waterford FC Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-0	0-2	8	0	L
21/08	Drogheda United Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-0	2-0	7	2	W
09/08	Shelbourne Republic of Ireland Premier Division	2-0	2-1	5	8	W
02/08	Derry City Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-0	1-1	3	5	D
24/07	Dundalk Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-1	1-1	7	7	D
10/07	Waterford FC Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
03/07	Galway United Republic of Ireland Premier Division	3-0	3-0	8	3	W
26/06	Bohemians Dublin Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
19/06	Sligo Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-0	2-0	14	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sligo Rovers vs St Patricks?

According to our model, the most likely result is an St Patricks win (64%). Probabilities: Sligo Rovers 14%, draw 23%, St Patricks 64%.

How many goals are expected in Sligo Rovers vs St Patricks?

The model expects 2.58 goals (Sligo Rovers 0.73 · St Patricks 1.86), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Sligo Rovers vs St Patricks?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.