Football · Venezuela Primera Division · 22/08, 22:00
Prediction: Monagas vs Portuguesa
Team pages: Monagas · Portuguesa
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.54Total
Monagas1.41
Portuguesa1.12
1X2
Monagas
Draw
Portuguesa
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Monagas
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Portuguesa
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Monagas
4–2
Portuguesa
(6 last)
- Portuguesa4-0Monagas
- Portuguesa0-1Monagas
- Monagas0-2Portuguesa
- Monagas4-1Portuguesa
- Portuguesa1-2Monagas
- Portuguesa1-2Monagas
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Monagas 1483 · Portuguesa 1546
| Monagas | Draw | Portuguesa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 29% | 29% |
| Market | 42% | 30% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.54 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Portuguesa (rating 1483 vs 1546).
- H2H favours Monagas: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 11.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Monagas | Portuguesa | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.5 | 1.3 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.6 | 0.8 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/60/30% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1 / 2.8 | 1 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.1 | 6.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Monagas 4–0–2 Portuguesa
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/02/26 Venezuela Primera Division | Portuguesa | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Monagas |
| 25/07/25 Venezuela Primera Division | Portuguesa | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Monagas |
| 16/02/25 Venezuela Primera Division | Monagas | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Portuguesa |
| 27/08/24 Venezuela Primera Division | Monagas | 4-1 HT 0-0 | Portuguesa |
| 09/03/24 Venezuela Primera Division | Portuguesa | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Monagas |
| 06/08/23 Venezuela Primera Division | Portuguesa | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Monagas |
Standings · Venezuela Primera Division · Primera Division 2026, Clausura
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Tachira | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 12 |
| 2 | Deportivo La Guaira | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 9 |
| 3 | Academia Puerto Cabello | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 9 |
| 4 | Metropolitanos FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 9 |
| 4 | Portuguesa | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 9 |
| 6 | Carabobo | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 7 | Estudiantes Merida | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 7 |
| 8 | Caracas | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 |
| 9 | Trujillanos | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 4 |
| 10 | Academia Anzoategui FC | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 4 |
| 11 | Deportivo Rayo Zuliano | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| 12 | Monagas | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 3 |
| 13 | UCV | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| 14 | Zamora | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 3 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Monagas | Portuguesa |
|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Tachira | 2-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Carabobo | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| UCV | 1-2 L | 3-2 W |
| Deportivo La Guaira | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Academia Puerto Cabello | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 3 L | 3 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Portuguesa (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Monagas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division |
1-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 08/08 | Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 05/08 | UCV Venezuela Primera Division |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 01/08 | Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 25/04 | Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 19/04 | Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division |
1-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 12/04 | Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 04/04 | Zamora Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 23/03 | Caracas Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 6 | D |
| 19/03 | Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
Portuguesa
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Trujillanos Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 09/08 | Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Primera Division |
2-1 | 4-3 | 7 | 9 | W |
| 05/08 | Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 31/07 | Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 30/05 | UCV Venezuela Primera Division |
2-0 | 3-2 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 24/05 | Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division |
0-2 | 0-2 | 6 | 9 | L |
| 17/05 | Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 14/05 | Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 09/05 | Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 6 | D |
| 03/05 | UCV Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Monagas vs Portuguesa?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Monagas win (42%). Probabilities: Monagas 42%, draw 30%, Portuguesa 28%.
How many goals are expected in Monagas vs Portuguesa?
The model expects 2.54 goals (Monagas 1.41 · Portuguesa 1.12), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Monagas vs Portuguesa?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.