Football · Iraq Stars League · 29/08, 20:00

Prediction: Al Zawra'a vs Zakho

Team pages: Al Zawra'a · Zakho

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.67Total

Al Zawra'a1.6

Zakho1.07

1X2

48% 28% 24%

Al Zawra'a Draw Zakho

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Al Zawra'a 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DWWDLLLDDW

Zakho 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WLLDLDLWLD

Head-to-head

Al Zawra'a 2–3–1 Zakho (6 last)

Zakho1-1Al Zawra'a
Al Zawra'a4-2Zakho
Zakho0-0Al Zawra'a
Al Zawra'a2-3Zakho
Al Zawra'a1-1Zakho
Al Zawra'a2-1Zakho

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Al Zawra'a 1513 · Zakho 1458

	Al Zawra'a	Draw	Zakho
Our model	48%	27%	24%
Market	48%	28%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.67 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Al Zawra'a (rating 1513 vs 1458).
H2H favours Al Zawra'a: 2-3-1.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Al Zawra'a	Zakho
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.8	1.4 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6.2	2 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.3	4.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.20

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:03 +63’	1.85	3.20	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Al Zawra'a 2–3–1 Zakho

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/04/26 Iraq Stars League	Zakho	1-1 HT 1-0	Al Zawra'a
05/02/26 Iraq Stars League	Al Zawra'a	4-2 HT 0-0	Zakho
02/05/25 Iraq Stars League	Zakho	0-0 HT 0-0	Al Zawra'a
25/10/24 Iraq League	Al Zawra'a	2-3 HT 1-1	Zakho
18/05/24 Iraq Stars League	Al Zawra'a	1-1 HT 0-1	Zakho
19/10/22 Iraq League	Al Zawra'a	2-1 HT 1-0	Zakho

Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Mosul FC	3	2	1	0	6	2	7
2	Al Minaa	3	2	1	0	5	1	7
3	Erbil SC	3	2	1	0	4	1	7
4	Al Zawra'a	3	1	2	0	5	1	5
5	Al Naft SC	3	1	2	0	3	1	5
6	Al Karma	3	1	2	0	4	3	5
7	Al Talaba	3	1	1	1	5	5	4
7	Diyala FC	3	1	1	1	5	5	4
9	Zakho	3	1	1	1	4	4	4
10	Al Shorta SC	3	1	1	1	3	3	4
11	Al Jolan SC	3	1	1	1	1	1	4
12	Al Gharraf	3	1	1	1	2	4	4
13	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	3	0	3	0	5	5	3
13	Duhok	3	0	3	0	5	5	3
15	Ghaz Al Shamal	3	0	2	1	2	3	2
16	Al Kahrabaa	3	0	2	1	2	4	2
17	Karbalaa FC	3	0	2	1	2	5	2
18	Naft Maysan	3	0	2	1	0	4	2
19	Newroz SC	3	0	1	2	3	5	1
20	Al Karkh	3	0	0	3	0	4	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Al Zawra'a	Zakho
Naft Maysan	4-0 W	3-1 W
Al Minaa	0-0 D	1-2 L
Al Najaf	0-1 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Al Zawra'a (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Al Zawra'a

DWWDLLLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/08	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	3-0	4-0	2	4	W
21/08	Karbalaa FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	5	10	D
15/08	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
01/06	Al Najaf Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-1	17	3	L
27/05	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
20/05	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-2	1	7	L
14/05	Al Qasim SC Iraq Stars League	1-1	1-1	10	6	D
10/05	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
05/05	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-0	1	5	W
01/05	Duhok Iraq Stars League	1-1	2-2	10	6	D

Zakho

WLLDLDLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/08	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	1-1	2-2	4	2	D
20/08	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	1-1	1-2	2	3	L
15/08	Ghaz Al Shamal Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
28/05	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-2	4	6	L
24/05	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	0-0	2-2	–	–	D
20/05	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-2	5	7	L
16/05	Al Najaf Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	8	3	D
11/05	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-2	2	8	L
06/05	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-3	3	7	L
01/05	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	1-1	3-1	5	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Al Zawra'a vs Zakho?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Al Zawra'a win (48%). Probabilities: Al Zawra'a 48%, draw 28%, Zakho 24%.

How many goals are expected in Al Zawra'a vs Zakho?

The model expects 2.67 goals (Al Zawra'a 1.6 · Zakho 1.07), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Al Zawra'a vs Zakho?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.