Football · Venezuela Primera Division · 22/08, 22:00
Prediction: Zamora vs UCV
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.65Total
Zamora1.2
UCV1.45
1X2
Zamora
Draw
UCV
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Zamora
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
UCV
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Zamora
2–1–3
UCV
(6 last)
- UCV2-1Zamora
- UCV0-1Zamora
- Zamora0-1UCV
- Zamora3-2UCV
- UCV2-2Zamora
- UCV5-0Zamora
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Zamora 1477 · UCV 1433
| Zamora | Draw | UCV | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 30% | 28% | 42% |
| Market | 30% | 28% | 42% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.65 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Zamora (rating 1477 vs 1433).
- H2H favours UCV: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 12 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Zamora | UCV | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.4 | 1.1 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.8 | 0.2 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 0/50/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 5.1 | 2.1 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.1 / 0.2 | 5.9 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Zamora 2–1–3 UCV
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02/26 Venezuela Primera Division | UCV | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Zamora |
| 31/08/25 Venezuela Primera Division | UCV | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Zamora |
| 29/03/25 Venezuela Primera Division | Zamora | 0-1 HT 0-0 | UCV |
| 21/08/24 Venezuela Primera Division | Zamora | 3-2 HT 0-2 | UCV |
| 02/03/24 Venezuela Primera Division | UCV | 2-2 HT 0-2 | Zamora |
| 15/07/23 Venezuela Primera Division | UCV | 5-0 HT 1-0 | Zamora |
Standings · Venezuela Primera Division · Primera Division 2026, Clausura
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Tachira | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 12 |
| 2 | Deportivo La Guaira | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 9 |
| 3 | Academia Puerto Cabello | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 9 |
| 4 | Metropolitanos FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 9 |
| 4 | Portuguesa | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 9 |
| 6 | Carabobo | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 7 | Estudiantes Merida | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 7 |
| 8 | Caracas | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 |
| 9 | Trujillanos | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 4 |
| 10 | Academia Anzoategui FC | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 4 |
| 11 | Deportivo Rayo Zuliano | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| 12 | Monagas | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 3 |
| 13 | UCV | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| 14 | Zamora | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 3 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Zamora | UCV |
|---|---|---|
| Deportivo La Guaira | 1-6 L | 0-0 D |
| Academia Puerto Cabello | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Caracas | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Metropolitanos FC | 0-0 D | 1-2 L |
| Monagas | 2-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Trujillanos | 3-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Portuguesa | 0-2 L | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 3 L | 1 W 1 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Zamora (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Zamora
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08 | Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division |
0-4 | 1-6 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 09/08 | Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 06/08 | Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 9 | L |
| 02/08 | Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division |
1-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 25/04 | Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 10 | D |
| 20/04 | Caracas Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 12/04 | Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 04/04 | Monagas Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 22/03 | Trujillanos Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 18/03 | Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division |
0-2 | 0-2 | 10 | 9 | L |
UCV
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Caracas Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 10/08 | Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 05/08 | Monagas Venezuela Primera Division |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 01/08 | Trujillanos Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 30/05 | Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division |
0-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 9 | L |
| 24/05 | Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 16/05 | Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 10 | D |
| 13/05 | Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 10/05 | Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division |
1-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 03/05 | Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Zamora vs UCV?
According to our model, the most likely result is an UCV win (42%). Probabilities: Zamora 30%, draw 28%, UCV 42%.
How many goals are expected in Zamora vs UCV?
The model expects 2.65 goals (Zamora 1.2 · UCV 1.45), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Zamora vs UCV?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.