Football · Paraguay Women League · 23/08, 20:00

Prediction: Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) vs Rubio Nu (W)

Team pages: Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) · Rubio Nu (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.23Total

Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)2.99

Rubio Nu (W)1.24

1X2

72% 17% 12%

Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) Draw Rubio Nu (W)

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Rubio Nu (W) 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) 1–0 Rubio Nu (W) (1 last)

Rubio Nu (W)0-5Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) 1527 · Rubio Nu (W) 1444

	Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)	Draw	Rubio Nu (W)
Our model	72%	16%	12%
Market	71%	18%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 4.23 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) (rating 1527 vs 1444).
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)	Rubio Nu (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2.7 / 2.4	1.2 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 1.3	0.2 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	0/56/44%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.8	0.8 / 2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.3	5.8 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.25

X5.00

28.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.85

2 (+1.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.98

Under 3.751.82

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 4.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.25 → 1.25	Bet365 1.25
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
21:02 +4’	1.25	5.00	8.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) 1–0–0 Rubio Nu (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Paraguay Women League	Rubio Nu (W)	0-5 HT 0-2	Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)

Standings · Paraguay Women League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Libertad Limpeno (W)	17	15	2	0	80	8	47
2	Olimpia Asuncion (W)	16	14	2	0	65	4	44
3	Club Guarani (W)	17	11	3	3	35	20	36
4	Cerro Porteno (W)	17	10	3	4	60	13	33
5	Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)	17	8	1	8	46	39	25
6	Nacional-Humaita (W)	18	8	1	9	30	41	25
7	Sportivo Trinidense (W)	15	6	2	7	19	23	20
8	Deportivo Recoleta (W)	17	6	2	9	21	39	20
9	2 de Mayo (W)	17	5	1	11	29	52	16
10	Rubio Nu (W)	16	2	4	10	13	46	10
11	Sportivo Luqueno (W)	17	1	4	12	9	60	7
12	Sportivo Ameliano (W)	16	0	3	13	11	73	3

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)	Rubio Nu (W)
Sportivo Trinidense (W)	3-1 W	0-3 L
Club Guarani (W)	1-4 L	1-1 D
Deportivo Recoleta (W)	1-2 L	1-1 D
Sportivo Ameliano (W)	6-2 W	1-1 D
Cerro Porteno (W)	2-2 D	0-6 L
Nacional-Humaita (W)	4-1 W	3-2 W
2 de Mayo (W)	3-1 W	3-1 W
Olimpia Asuncion (W)	0-7 L	0-2 L
Libertad Limpeno (W)	1-3 L	2-6 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 3 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Sportivo Trinidense (W) Paraguay Women League	1-0	3-1	5	4	W
09/08	Club Guarani (W) Paraguay Women League	0-1	1-4	6	1	L
02/08	Deportivo Recoleta (W) Paraguay Women League	1-2	1-2	15	4	L
25/07	Sportivo Ameliano (W) Paraguay Women League	2-2	6-2	11	4	W
20/07	Cerro Porteno (W) Paraguay Women League	1-2	2-2	9	3	D
05/07	Nacional-Humaita (W) Paraguay Women League	1-1	4-1	3	6	W
28/06	2 de Mayo (W) Paraguay Women League	1-0	3-1	5	4	W
31/05	Sportivo Luqueno (W) Paraguay Women League	4-1	6-1	2	5	W
23/05	Olimpia Asuncion (W) Paraguay Women League	0-2	0-7	0	2	L
17/05	Libertad Limpeno (W) Paraguay Women League	0-2	1-3	2	5	L

Rubio Nu (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/08	Libertad Limpeno (W) Paraguay Women League	–	2-6	2	8	L
09/08	Olimpia Asuncion (W) Paraguay Women League	0-0	0-2	1	4	L
02/08	Sportivo Trinidense (W) Paraguay Women League	0-3	0-3	1	7	L
26/07	Club Guarani (W) Paraguay Women League	0-0	1-1	1	8	D
20/07	Deportivo Recoleta (W) Paraguay Women League	0-1	1-1	8	4	D
16/07	Sportivo Ameliano (W) Paraguay Women League	1-1	1-1	1	6	D
13/07	Sportivo Ameliano (W) Paraguay Women League	0-0	1-1	3	8	D
29/06	Cerro Porteno (W) Paraguay Women League	0-2	0-6	0	2	L
31/05	Nacional-Humaita (W) Paraguay Women League	1-1	3-2	3	5	W
24/05	2 de Mayo (W) Paraguay Women League	0-1	3-1	0	11	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) vs Rubio Nu (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) win (72%). Probabilities: Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) 72%, draw 17%, Rubio Nu (W) 12%.

How many goals are expected in Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) vs Rubio Nu (W)?

The model expects 4.23 goals (Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) 2.99 · Rubio Nu (W) 1.24), with a 52% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) vs Rubio Nu (W)?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.