Football · Paraguay Women League · 23/08, 01:00

Prediction: Nacional-Humaita (W) vs Deportivo Recoleta (W)

Team pages: Nacional-Humaita (W) · Deportivo Recoleta (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.29Total

Nacional-Humaita (W)2.29

Deportivo Recoleta (W)1

1X2

66% 20% 14%

Nacional-Humaita (W) Draw Deportivo Recoleta (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

Nacional-Humaita (W) 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

DWLLLWWLLW

Deportivo Recoleta (W) 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLDLDLWLWL

Head-to-head

Nacional-Humaita (W) 2–1 Deportivo Recoleta (W) (3 last)

Deportivo Recoleta (W)2-1Nacional-Humaita (W)
Nacional-Humaita (W)3-1Deportivo Recoleta (W)
Deportivo Recoleta (W)1-3Nacional-Humaita (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nacional-Humaita (W) 1480 · Deportivo Recoleta (W) 1473

	Nacional-Humaita (W)	Draw	Deportivo Recoleta (W)
Our model	66%	20%	14%
Market	66%	20%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 3.29 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Nacional-Humaita (W): 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nacional-Humaita (W)	Deportivo Recoleta (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2.3	1.1 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1.1	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	40/10/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.8	1.7 / 2.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.3	3.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.36

X4.50

26.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.98

2 (+1.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.36	Bet365 1.36
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	6.25 → 6.25	Bet365 6.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
23:05 +1’	1.36	4.50	6.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nacional-Humaita (W) 2–0–1 Deportivo Recoleta (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Paraguay Women League	Deportivo Recoleta (W)	2-1 HT 0-1	Nacional-Humaita (W)
18/05/25 Paraguay Women League	Nacional-Humaita (W)	3-1 HT 1-0	Deportivo Recoleta (W)
01/03/25 Paraguay Women League	Deportivo Recoleta (W)	1-3 HT 0-1	Nacional-Humaita (W)

Standings · Paraguay Women League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Libertad Limpeno (W)	17	15	2	0	80	8	47
2	Olimpia Asuncion (W)	16	14	2	0	65	4	44
3	Club Guarani (W)	17	11	3	3	35	20	36
4	Cerro Porteno (W)	17	10	3	4	60	13	33
5	Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)	17	8	1	8	46	39	25
6	Nacional-Humaita (W)	18	8	1	9	30	41	25
7	Sportivo Trinidense (W)	15	6	2	7	19	23	20
8	Deportivo Recoleta (W)	17	6	2	9	21	39	20
9	2 de Mayo (W)	17	5	1	11	29	52	16
10	Rubio Nu (W)	16	2	4	10	13	46	10
11	Sportivo Luqueno (W)	17	1	4	12	9	60	7
12	Sportivo Ameliano (W)	16	0	3	13	11	73	3

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nacional-Humaita (W)	Deportivo Recoleta (W)
Sportivo Ameliano (W)	4-0 W	6-2 W
Olimpia Asuncion (W)	0-6 L	0-2 L
2 de Mayo (W)	3-2 W	0-3 L
Sportivo Luqueno (W)	1-0 W	2-1 W
Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)	1-4 L	2-1 W
Libertad Limpeno (W)	1-3 L	0-4 L
Rubio Nu (W)	2-3 L	1-1 D
Sportivo Trinidense (W)	1-0 W	0-3 L
Club Guarani (W)	1-1 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 4 L	3 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Nacional-Humaita (W) (4 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nacional-Humaita (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Sportivo Ameliano (W) Paraguay Women League	4-0	4-0	8	6	W
08/08	Cerro Porteno (W) Paraguay Women League	0-1	0-4	3	3	L
02/08	Olimpia Asuncion (W) Paraguay Women League	0-4	0-6	2	5	L
26/07	2 de Mayo (W) Paraguay Women League	1-1	3-2	7	5	W
19/07	Sportivo Luqueno (W) Paraguay Women League	1-0	1-0	8	5	W
05/07	Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) Paraguay Women League	1-1	1-4	7	6	L
27/06	Libertad Limpeno (W) Paraguay Women League	0-2	1-3	1	1	L
31/05	Rubio Nu (W) Paraguay Women League	1-1	2-3	7	5	L
23/05	Sportivo Trinidense (W) Paraguay Women League	1-0	1-0	2	9	W
17/05	Club Guarani (W) Paraguay Women League	0-1	1-1	3	5	D

Deportivo Recoleta (W)

WLDLDLWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	2 de Mayo (W) Paraguay Women League	0-1	0-3	1	2	L
10/08	Sportivo Luqueno (W) Paraguay Women League	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
05/08	Olimpia Asuncion (W) Paraguay Women League	0-1	0-2	1	0	L
02/08	Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) Paraguay Women League	2-1	2-1	1	4	W
25/07	Libertad Limpeno (W) Paraguay Women League	0-1	0-4	0	5	L
20/07	Rubio Nu (W) Paraguay Women League	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
15/07	Sportivo Trinidense (W) Paraguay Women League	0-2	0-3	3	2	L
12/07	Sportivo Trinidense (W) Paraguay Women League	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
28/06	Club Guarani (W) Paraguay Women League	0-1	0-1	1	3	L
24/05	Sportivo Ameliano (W) Paraguay Women League	2-0	6-2	3	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nacional-Humaita (W) vs Deportivo Recoleta (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nacional-Humaita (W) win (66%). Probabilities: Nacional-Humaita (W) 66%, draw 20%, Deportivo Recoleta (W) 14%.

How many goals are expected in Nacional-Humaita (W) vs Deportivo Recoleta (W)?

The model expects 3.29 goals (Nacional-Humaita (W) 2.29 · Deportivo Recoleta (W) 1), with a 53% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Nacional-Humaita (W) vs Deportivo Recoleta (W)?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.