Football · Spain Copa Federacion · 19/08, 20:30
Prediction: Real Murcia vs UCAM Murcia CF
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.69Total
Real Murcia1.69
UCAM Murcia CF1
1X2
Real Murcia
Draw
UCAM Murcia CF
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Real Murcia
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
UCAM Murcia CF
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Real Murcia
0–2–4
UCAM Murcia CF
(6 last)
- UCAM Murcia CF3-2Real Murcia
- UCAM Murcia CF1-1Real Murcia
- UCAM Murcia CF3-0Real Murcia
- UCAM Murcia CF1-0Real Murcia
- UCAM Murcia CF3-0Real Murcia
- UCAM Murcia CF1-1Real Murcia
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Real Murcia 1550 · UCAM Murcia CF 1523
| Real Murcia | Draw | UCAM Murcia CF | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 26% | 21% |
| Market | 54% | 24% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.69 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours UCAM Murcia CF: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Real Murcia | UCAM Murcia CF | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 0.9 | 2.4 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.4 / 0.4 | 1.3 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/10/20% | 60/10/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 3.8 | 1.8 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0 | 5.4 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Murcia 0–2–4 UCAM Murcia CF
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/12/25 Europe Friendlies | UCAM Murcia CF | 3-2 HT 1-0 | Real Murcia |
| 02/01/25 Europe Friendlies | UCAM Murcia CF | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Real Murcia |
| 29/12/23 Europe Friendlies | UCAM Murcia CF | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Real Murcia |
| 30/12/22 Europe Friendlies | UCAM Murcia CF | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Real Murcia |
| 29/12/21 Europe Friendlies | UCAM Murcia CF | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Real Murcia |
| 14/03/21 Spain Segunda B Group 4 | UCAM Murcia CF | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Real Murcia |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Real Murcia
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Mazarron Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 12/08 | CF Lorca Deportiva Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 08/08 | Albacete Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 0 | D |
| 05/08 | Cieza Europe Friendlies |
3-0 | 4-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 01/08 | Eldense Europe Friendlies |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 25/07 | Port Vale Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 9 | L |
| 24/05 | Eldense Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 16/05 | Juventud Torremolinos CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
2-0 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 10/05 | Betis Deportivo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
1-2 | 1-2 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 03/05 | Sabadell Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
2-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | D |
UCAM Murcia CF
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Orihuela Europe Friendlies |
4-1 | 7-2 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 05/08 | Mazarron Europe Friendlies |
4-0 | 6-0 | – | – | W |
| 01/08 | Hercules Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 03/05 | Xerez CD Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 26/04 | Real Jaen Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 19/04 | CD Union Malacitano Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4 |
0-1 | 1-4 | 12 | 5 | L |
| 12/04 | Atletico Malagueno Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4 |
2-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 05/04 | Deportiva Minera Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 28/03 | Rec de Huelva Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 22/03 | Aguilas Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 0 | 12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Real Murcia vs UCAM Murcia CF?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Murcia win (53%). Probabilities: Real Murcia 53%, draw 25%, UCAM Murcia CF 22%.
How many goals are expected in Real Murcia vs UCAM Murcia CF?
The model expects 2.69 goals (Real Murcia 1.69 · UCAM Murcia CF 1), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Real Murcia vs UCAM Murcia CF?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.