Football · Spain Copa Federacion · 19/08, 19:30

Prediction: Siero vs El San Martin

Team pages: Siero

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.42Total

Siero1.27

El San Martin1.15

1X2

38% 29% 33%

Siero Draw El San Martin

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Siero 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLLLWWWLWD

El San Martin 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

DWWWLWWLWW

Head-to-head

Siero 0–2–4 El San Martin (6 last)

Siero1-2El San Martin
El San Martin5-2Siero
Siero0-1El San Martin
El San Martin2-0Siero
Siero1-1El San Martin
El San Martin1-1Siero

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Siero 1476 · El San Martin 1563

	Siero	Draw	El San Martin
Our model	38%	30%	32%
Market	39%	28%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.42 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours El San Martin (rating 1476 vs 1563).
H2H favours El San Martin: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Siero	El San Martin
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.5	1.3 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.9	0.4 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	14/57/29%	25/75/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.4	2.5 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.4	4.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.20

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.75

2 (0)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
20:10 +20’	2.30	3.20	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Siero 0–2–4 El San Martin

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 Spain Tercera Group 2	Siero	1-2 HT 1-1	El San Martin
09/11/25 Spain Tercera Group 2	El San Martin	5-2	Siero
07/02/21 Spain Tercera Group 2	Siero	0-1 HT 0-0	El San Martin
20/12/20 Spain Tercera Group 2	El San Martin	2-0 HT 0-0	Siero
19/01/20 Spain Tercera Group 2	Siero	1-1 HT 1-0	El San Martin
01/09/19 Spain Tercera Group 2	El San Martin	1-1	Siero

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Siero	El San Martin
Caudal	2-1 W	1-0 W
UC Ceares	0-2 L	1-0 W
SD Navarro CF	1-0 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: El San Martin (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Siero

LLLLWWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	UP Langreo Spain Copa Federacion	1-1	2-2	3	12	D
05/08	Caudal Europe Friendlies	0-0	2-1	2	4	W
10/05	UC Ceares Spain Tercera Group 2	–	0-2	–	–	L
03/05	Caudal Spain Tercera Group 2	–	1-0	–	–	W
26/04	Tuilla Spain Tercera Group 2	–	1-0	–	–	W
19/04	SD Navarro CF Spain Tercera Group 2	1-0	1-0	8	4	W
12/04	Gijon Industrial Spain Tercera Group 2	0-1	1-3	2	4	L
02/04	Praviano Spain Tercera Group 2	2-2	2-3	7	7	L
28/03	Lenense Spain Tercera Group 2	0-1	0-2	7	4	L
22/03	El San Martin Spain Tercera Group 2	1-1	1-2	2	4	L

El San Martin

DWWWLWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/08	SD Navarro CF Europe Friendlies	0-0	3-0	3	0	W
10/05	Llanes Spain Tercera Group 2	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
03/05	Sporting Gijon B Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	0-2	3	1	L
26/04	L'Entregu CF Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	1-0	0	8	W
19/04	CD Colunga Spain Tercera Group 2	–	3-2	–	–	W
12/04	Mosconia Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	0-1	4	9	L
03/04	UC Ceares Spain Tercera Group 2	1-0	1-0	6	4	W
28/03	Caudal Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
22/03	Siero Spain Tercera Group 2	1-1	2-1	6	4	W
15/03	SD Navarro CF Spain Tercera Group 2	–	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Siero vs El San Martin?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Siero win (38%). Probabilities: Siero 38%, draw 29%, El San Martin 33%.

How many goals are expected in Siero vs El San Martin?

The model expects 2.42 goals (Siero 1.27 · El San Martin 1.15), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Siero vs El San Martin?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.