Football · Spain Copa Federacion · 19/08, 20:00

Prediction: CD Colonia Moscardo vs Mexico FC

Team pages: CD Colonia Moscardo · Mexico FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.26Total

CD Colonia Moscardo1.38

Mexico FC0.88

1X2

49% 28% 24%

CD Colonia Moscardo Draw Mexico FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

CD Colonia Moscardo 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLLWWLDLLL

Mexico FC 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

DLWDDDLWDD

Head-to-head

CD Colonia Moscardo 3–1 Mexico FC (4 last)

CD Colonia Moscardo1-0Mexico FC
Mexico FC0-1CD Colonia Moscardo
CD Colonia Moscardo1-3Mexico FC
Mexico FC1-2CD Colonia Moscardo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Colonia Moscardo 1444 · Mexico FC 1499

	CD Colonia Moscardo	Draw	Mexico FC
Our model	47%	30%	23%
Market	50%	26%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.26 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mexico FC (rating 1444 vs 1499).
H2H favours CD Colonia Moscardo: 3-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 11.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD Colonia Moscardo	Mexico FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.3	1.2 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.7	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 3.3	2 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.1 / 0.2	5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.50

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
16:57 +30’	1.80	3.50	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Colonia Moscardo 3–0–1 Mexico FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/05/24 Spain Tercera Group 7	CD Colonia Moscardo	1-0 HT 0-0	Mexico FC
21/01/24 Spain Tercera Group 7	Mexico FC	0-1 HT 0-1	CD Colonia Moscardo
27/02/22 Spain Tercera Group 7	CD Colonia Moscardo	1-3	Mexico FC
30/10/21 Spain Tercera Group 7	Mexico FC	1-2 HT 0-1	CD Colonia Moscardo

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Colonia Moscardo	Mexico FC
Las Rozas	0-1 L	1-1 D
Fuenlabrada	1-2 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Mexico FC (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

CD Colonia Moscardo

LLLWWLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Las Rozas Spain Copa Federacion	0-1	0-1	6	4	L
12/08	Fuenlabrada Spain Copa Federacion	1-1	1-2	7	8	L
03/05	CF Intercity Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-2	0-2	3	3	L
26/04	Navalcarnero Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
14/04	Real Madrid C Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-0	0-1	1	5	L
11/04	Orihuela Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-0	1-0	1	7	W
05/04	Getafe B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-0	2-0	2	7	W
28/03	UD San Sebastian Reyes Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-1	1-2	1	7	L
22/03	Las Palmas B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-1	1-2	6	11	L
15/03	Conquense Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-1	0-3	–	–	L

Mexico FC

DLWDDDLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Fuenlabrada Spain Copa Federacion	0-0	0-0	0	4	D
12/08	Las Rozas Spain Copa Federacion	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
10/05	Leganes B Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
03/05	Trival Valderas Spain Tercera Group 7	0-2	0-2	8	4	L
26/04	Torrejon Spain Tercera Group 7	1-3	3-3	4	6	D
18/04	AD Parla Spain Tercera Group 7	0-2	2-2	4	10	D
11/04	Alcorcon B Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-1	0	4	D
02/04	CD Galapagar Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	3-1	4	9	W
28/03	CDF Tres Cantos Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-5	7	5	L
22/03	RCD Carabanchel Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-0	2	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Colonia Moscardo vs Mexico FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CD Colonia Moscardo win (49%). Probabilities: CD Colonia Moscardo 49%, draw 28%, Mexico FC 24%.

How many goals are expected in CD Colonia Moscardo vs Mexico FC?

The model expects 2.26 goals (CD Colonia Moscardo 1.38 · Mexico FC 0.88), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in CD Colonia Moscardo vs Mexico FC?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.