Football · Rwanda National League · 25/10, 14:00

Prediction: Musanze FC vs Police FC

Team pages: Musanze FC · Police FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.53Total

Musanze FC0.8

Police FC0.73

1X2

34% 35% 30%

Musanze FC Draw Police FC

Markets

Under 1.5 goals 53% Not both to score 56%

Most likely score

0-0 23%

Recent form · 10 last

Musanze FC 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LDDDWDLWLL

Police FC 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

DDDDDWLWLD

Head-to-head

Musanze FC 1–3–2 Police FC (6 last)

Musanze FC0-0Police FC
Police FC1-1Musanze FC
Police FC3-3Musanze FC
Musanze FC0-1Police FC
Musanze FC1-0Police FC
Police FC3-0Musanze FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Musanze FC 1474 · Police FC 1491

	Musanze FC	Draw	Police FC
Our model	33%	39%	29%
Market	36%	32%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 1.53 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Police FC: 2-3-1.
High corners: 12.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Musanze FC	Police FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 0.9	0.5 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.3	0.1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	0/80/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 5.5	3 / 7.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	2.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.50

X2.75

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.85

Under 1.751.95

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 1.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
21:32 +12’	2.50	2.75	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Musanze FC 1–3–2 Police FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Rwanda National League	Musanze FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Police FC
30/11/25 Rwanda National League	Police FC	1-1 HT 1-0	Musanze FC
22/02/25 Rwanda National League	Police FC	3-3 HT 3-1	Musanze FC
15/09/24 Rwanda National League	Musanze FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Police FC
12/05/24 Rwanda National League	Musanze FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Police FC
12/12/23 Rwanda National League	Police FC	3-0 HT 0-0	Musanze FC

Standings · Rwanda National League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gorilla FC	6	3	2	1	4	2	11
2	Gicumbi FC	4	3	0	1	5	3	9
3	Marines FC	4	2	1	1	8	4	7
4	Amagaju	6	2	1	3	8	5	7
5	Mukura	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
6	Etincelles	5	2	1	2	2	6	7
7	Bugesera	3	2	0	1	4	1	6
8	Sunrise FC	5	1	3	1	3	6	6
9	Gasogi Utd	5	1	2	2	2	5	5
10	Police FC	4	1	1	2	2	3	4
11	SC Kiyovu	4	1	1	2	1	2	4
12	AS Kigali	4	1	1	2	1	4	4
13	APR FC	1	1	0	0	4	2	3
14	Al Hilal Omdurman	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
15	Musanze FC	3	1	0	2	1	2	3
16	Etoile de L'Est	4	0	2	2	2	5	2
17	Al Merrikh	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
18	Rayon Sports FC	2	0	1	1	1	2	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Musanze FC	Police FC
Gasogi Utd	0-1 L	1-0 W
SC Kiyovu	1-0 W	0-0 D
Al Hilal Omdurman	0-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Police FC (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Musanze FC

LDDDWDLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Gasogi Utd Rwanda National League	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
15/09	Etincelles Rwanda National League	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
11/09	SC Kiyovu Rwanda National League	1-0	1-0	6	3	W
30/05	AS Kigali Rwanda National League	0-1	1-2	3	3	L
24/05	Marines FC Rwanda National League	1-1	1-1	3	4	D
17/05	Gasogi Utd Rwanda National League	2-1	3-2	4	2	W
09/05	Police FC Rwanda National League	0-0	0-0	10	2	D
06/05	Rutsiro FC Rwanda National League	0-0	0-0	10	2	D
02/05	SC Kiyovu Rwanda National League	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
25/04	Al Hilal Omdurman Rwanda National League	0-0	0-2	2	3	L

Police FC

DDDDDWLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	Gorilla FC Rwanda National League	0-0	0-0	9	4	D
11/10	Sunrise FC Rwanda National League	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
17/09	Mukura Rwanda National League	0-0	1-0	5	1	W
07/09	Gicumbi FC Rwanda National League	1-1	1-2	9	2	L
28/05	Gasogi Utd Rwanda National League	0-0	1-0	12	1	W
24/05	SC Kiyovu Rwanda National League	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
16/05	Al Hilal Omdurman Rwanda National League	0-1	1-1	10	2	D
09/05	Musanze FC Rwanda National League	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
06/05	Mukura Rwanda National League	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
01/05	Gorilla FC Rwanda National League	0-1	1-1	7	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Musanze FC vs Police FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a draw (35%). Probabilities: Musanze FC 34%, draw 35%, Police FC 30%.

How many goals are expected in Musanze FC vs Police FC?

The model expects 1.53 goals (Musanze FC 0.8 · Police FC 0.73), with a 55% chance of under 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Musanze FC vs Police FC?

The model gives a 56% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.