Football · Rwanda National League · 25/10, 14:00

Prediction: Mukura vs Gicumbi FC

Team pages: Mukura · Gicumbi FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.48Total

Mukura1.45

Gicumbi FC1.03

1X2

45% 30% 25%

Mukura Draw Gicumbi FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Mukura 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LDWDLDWLWD

Gicumbi FC 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LLWLWLWWWL

Head-to-head

Mukura 4–1–1 Gicumbi FC (6 last)

Gicumbi FC3-2Mukura
Mukura2-0Gicumbi FC
Mukura1-0Gicumbi FC
Gicumbi FC1-1Mukura
Mukura3-0Gicumbi FC
Gicumbi FC1-3Mukura

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mukura 1492 · Gicumbi FC 1495

	Mukura	Draw	Gicumbi FC
Our model	45%	29%	26%
Market	45%	31%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.48 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Mukura: 4-1-1.
High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mukura	Gicumbi FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.1	1.2 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.3	0.6 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4.6	4 / 7.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.1	3.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.00

X2.90

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.05

2 (+0.5)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 21.95

Under 21.85

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3%

Time*	1	X	2
21:24 +20’	2.00	2.90	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Mukura 4–1–1 Gicumbi FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 Rwanda National League	Gicumbi FC	3-2 HT 1-2	Mukura
14/12/25 Rwanda National League	Mukura	2-0 HT 1-0	Gicumbi FC
23/05/22 Rwanda National League	Mukura	1-0 HT 0-0	Gicumbi FC
20/01/22 Rwanda National League	Gicumbi FC	1-1 HT 0-1	Mukura
09/02/20 Rwanda National League	Mukura	3-0 HT 1-0	Gicumbi FC
20/10/19 Rwanda National League	Gicumbi FC	1-3 HT 0-1	Mukura

Standings · Rwanda National League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gorilla FC	6	3	2	1	4	2	11
2	Gicumbi FC	4	3	0	1	5	3	9
3	Marines FC	4	2	1	1	8	4	7
4	Amagaju	6	2	1	3	8	5	7
5	Mukura	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
6	Etincelles	5	2	1	2	2	6	7
7	Bugesera	3	2	0	1	4	1	6
8	Sunrise FC	5	1	3	1	3	6	6
9	Gasogi Utd	5	1	2	2	2	5	5
10	Police FC	4	1	1	2	2	3	4
11	SC Kiyovu	4	1	1	2	1	2	4
12	AS Kigali	4	1	1	2	1	4	4
13	APR FC	1	1	0	0	4	2	3
14	Al Hilal Omdurman	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
15	Musanze FC	3	1	0	2	1	2	3
16	Etoile de L'Est	4	0	2	2	2	5	2
17	Al Merrikh	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
18	Rayon Sports FC	2	0	1	1	1	2	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mukura	Gicumbi FC
Etoile de L'Est	1-1 D	2-1 W
Amagaju	2-1 W	1-0 W
Police FC	0-1 L	2-1 W
Gasogi Utd	2-0 W	1-3 L
Bugesera	2-2 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	4 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Gicumbi FC (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mukura

LDWDLDWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Etoile de L'Est Rwanda National League	0-0	1-1	4	1	D
11/10	Amagaju Rwanda National League	1-0	2-1	2	4	W
17/09	Police FC Rwanda National League	0-0	0-1	4	1	L
06/09	Gasogi Utd Rwanda National League	1-0	2-0	5	0	W
30/05	Amagaju Rwanda National League	0-0	0-0	6	1	D
24/05	Gicumbi FC Rwanda National League	2-1	2-3	–	–	L
16/05	Bugesera Rwanda National League	0-1	2-2	5	3	D
09/05	Gorilla FC Rwanda National League	0-1	2-1	8	5	W
06/05	Police FC Rwanda National League	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
03/05	Rutsiro FC Rwanda National League	0-0	1-2	5	3	L

Gicumbi FC

LLWLWLWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	AS Kigali Rwanda National League	0-1	0-1	6	7	L
15/09	Etoile de L'Est Rwanda National League	1-1	2-1	3	3	W
12/09	Amagaju Rwanda National League	1-0	1-0	6	3	W
07/09	Police FC Rwanda National League	1-1	2-1	8	2	W
31/05	APR FC Rwanda National League	0-1	0-2	8	2	L
24/05	Mukura Rwanda National League	1-2	3-2	–	–	W
15/05	AS Kigali Rwanda National League	0-1	1-2	7	4	L
09/05	Bugesera Rwanda National League	1-1	2-1	11	3	W
05/05	Gasogi Utd Rwanda National League	1-2	1-3	10	3	L
02/05	Al Merrikh Rwanda National League	0-0	0-3	5	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mukura vs Gicumbi FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Mukura win (45%). Probabilities: Mukura 45%, draw 30%, Gicumbi FC 25%.

How many goals are expected in Mukura vs Gicumbi FC?

The model expects 2.48 goals (Mukura 1.45 · Gicumbi FC 1.03), with a 55% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Mukura vs Gicumbi FC?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.