Football · Rwanda National League · 25/10, 14:00

Prediction: Marines FC vs Gasogi Utd

Team pages: Marines FC · Gasogi Utd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.86Total

Marines FC1.79

Gasogi Utd1.08

1X2

52% 27% 21%

Marines FC Draw Gasogi Utd

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Marines FC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWLLDWWLDW

Gasogi Utd 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

DLLLLLWDLD

Head-to-head

Marines FC 2–1–3 Gasogi Utd (6 last)

Marines FC2-2Gasogi Utd
Gasogi Utd0-2Marines FC
Marines FC3-0Gasogi Utd
Gasogi Utd1-0Marines FC
Gasogi Utd2-0Marines FC
Marines FC0-1Gasogi Utd

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Marines FC 1536 · Gasogi Utd 1442

	Marines FC	Draw	Gasogi Utd
Our model	53%	25%	22%
Market	51%	29%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.86 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.9

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Marines FC (rating 1536 vs 1442).
H2H favours Gasogi Utd: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Marines FC	Gasogi Utd
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.4	0.8 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.7	0.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	11/44/44%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.6	3 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0	3.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.10

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 21.85

Under 21.95

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
21:38 +6’	1.75	3.10	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Marines FC 2–1–3 Gasogi Utd

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/05/26 Rwanda National League	Marines FC	2-2 HT 2-1	Gasogi Utd
06/12/25 Rwanda National League	Gasogi Utd	0-2 HT 0-1	Marines FC
09/02/25 Rwanda National League	Marines FC	3-0 HT 0-0	Gasogi Utd
23/08/24 Rwanda National League	Gasogi Utd	1-0 HT 1-0	Marines FC
03/03/24 Rwanda National League	Gasogi Utd	2-0 HT 2-0	Marines FC
21/10/23 Rwanda National League	Marines FC	0-1 HT 0-1	Gasogi Utd

Standings · Rwanda National League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gorilla FC	6	3	2	1	4	2	11
2	Gicumbi FC	4	3	0	1	5	3	9
3	Marines FC	4	2	1	1	8	4	7
4	Amagaju	6	2	1	3	8	5	7
5	Mukura	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
6	Etincelles	5	2	1	2	2	6	7
7	Bugesera	3	2	0	1	4	1	6
8	Sunrise FC	5	1	3	1	3	6	6
9	Gasogi Utd	5	1	2	2	2	5	5
10	Police FC	4	1	1	2	2	3	4
11	SC Kiyovu	4	1	1	2	1	2	4
12	AS Kigali	4	1	1	2	1	4	4
13	APR FC	1	1	0	0	4	2	3
14	Al Hilal Omdurman	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
15	Musanze FC	3	1	0	2	1	2	3
16	Etoile de L'Est	4	0	2	2	2	5	2
17	Al Merrikh	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
18	Rayon Sports FC	2	0	1	1	1	2	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Marines FC	Gasogi Utd
Etincelles	4-0 W	2-2 D
Musanze FC	1-1 D	1-0 W
Bugesera	4-0 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Marines FC (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Marines FC

DWLLDWWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Etincelles Rwanda National League	1-0	4-0	5	6	W
10/10	SC Kiyovu Rwanda National League	0-0	0-0	11	3	D
16/09	APR FC Rwanda National League	2-1	2-4	5	3	L
06/09	AS Kigali Rwanda National League	2-0	2-0	9	5	W
30/05	AS Muhanga Rwanda National League	1-1	3-2	3	5	W
24/05	Musanze FC Rwanda National League	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
16/05	Etincelles Rwanda National League	1-1	2-3	2	0	L
09/05	Rayon Sports FC Rwanda National League	0-2	1-2	6	4	L
06/05	Bugesera Rwanda National League	3-0	4-0	4	2	W
01/05	Gasogi Utd Rwanda National League	2-1	2-2	9	1	D

Gasogi Utd

DLLLLLWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/10	Gorilla FC Rwanda National League	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
18/10	Bugesera Rwanda National League	0-0	0-2	7	6	L
14/10	Sunrise FC Rwanda National League	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
11/10	Musanze FC Rwanda National League	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
06/09	Mukura Rwanda National League	0-1	0-2	7	0	L
28/05	Police FC Rwanda National League	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
17/05	Musanze FC Rwanda National League	1-2	2-3	1	2	L
13/05	Al Hilal Omdurman Rwanda National League	0-1	1-2	8	4	L
13/05	Al Hilal Omdurman Rwanda National League	–	1-2	–	–	L
10/05	Etincelles Rwanda National League	2-1	2-2	2	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Marines FC vs Gasogi Utd?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Marines FC win (52%). Probabilities: Marines FC 52%, draw 27%, Gasogi Utd 21%.

How many goals are expected in Marines FC vs Gasogi Utd?

The model expects 2.86 goals (Marines FC 1.79 · Gasogi Utd 1.08), with a 61% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Marines FC vs Gasogi Utd?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.