Football · Uruguay Clausura · 31/08, 00:00
Prediction: Cerro Largo vs Liverpool Montevideo
Team pages: Cerro Largo · Liverpool Montevideo
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.22Total
Cerro Largo0.93
Liverpool Montevideo1.29
1X2
Cerro Largo
Draw
Liverpool Montevideo
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 62%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Cerro Largo
2-6-2 (W-D-L)
Liverpool Montevideo
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Cerro Largo
1–2–3
Liverpool Montevideo
(6 last)
- Liverpool Montevideo0-0Cerro Largo
- Liverpool Montevideo2-0Cerro Largo
- Cerro Largo2-0Liverpool Montevideo
- Liverpool Montevideo2-1Cerro Largo
- Liverpool Montevideo1-0Cerro Largo
- Cerro Largo0-0Liverpool Montevideo
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cerro Largo 1506 · Liverpool Montevideo 1558
| Cerro Largo | Draw | Liverpool Montevideo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 25% | 31% | 44% |
| Market | 26% | 30% | 44% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.22 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Liverpool Montevideo (rating 1506 vs 1558).
- H2H favours Liverpool Montevideo: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 12.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cerro Largo | Liverpool Montevideo | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.3 | 1.8 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.5 | 0.5 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 2.9 | 2.3 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.1 / 0.3 | 6.6 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cerro Largo 1–2–3 Liverpool Montevideo
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/06/26 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio | Liverpool Montevideo | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Cerro Largo |
| 01/03/26 Uruguay Apertura | Liverpool Montevideo | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Cerro Largo |
| 07/11/25 Uruguay Clausura | Cerro Largo | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Liverpool Montevideo |
| 07/06/25 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio | Liverpool Montevideo | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Cerro Largo |
| 18/05/25 Uruguay Apertura | Liverpool Montevideo | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Cerro Largo |
| 13/11/24 Uruguay Clausura | Cerro Largo | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Liverpool Montevideo |
Standings · Uruguay Clausura · Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 16 |
| 2 | Cerro Largo | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 11 |
| 3 | Racing Club de Montevideo | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Liverpool Montevideo | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 9 |
| 5 | Central Espanol | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 9 |
| 6 | Cerro | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 9 |
| 7 | Defensor Sporting | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 6 |
| 8 | Boston River | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 5 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Cerro Largo | Liverpool Montevideo |
|---|---|---|
| Defensor Sporting | 1-1 D | 4-0 W |
| Juventud De Las Piedras | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Plaza Colonia | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Racing Club de Montevideo | 2-2 D | 2-2 D |
| CA River Plate | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Boston River | 2-2 D | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 5 D 0 L | 4 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Liverpool Montevideo (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cerro Largo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 16/08 | Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 08/08 | Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 07/11 | Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 03/11 | Plaza Colonia Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 9 | W |
| 25/10 | Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 8 | D |
| 19/10 | CA River Plate Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 11/10 | Boston River Uruguay Clausura |
2-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 04/10 | Nacional De Football Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 11 | L |
| 27/09 | Penarol Uruguay Clausura |
1-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 6 | L |
Liverpool Montevideo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Cerro Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 4-0 | 13 | 5 | W |
| 16/08 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 10 | W |
| 08/08 | Albion FC Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 07/11 | Cerro Largo Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 01/11 | Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 9 | L |
| 26/10 | Club Atletico Progreso Uruguay Clausura |
1-1 | 3-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 21/10 | Plaza Colonia Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 11/10 | Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 03/10 | CA River Plate Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 27/09 | Boston River Uruguay Clausura |
2-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cerro Largo vs Liverpool Montevideo?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Liverpool Montevideo win (44%). Probabilities: Cerro Largo 26%, draw 30%, Liverpool Montevideo 44%.
How many goals are expected in Cerro Largo vs Liverpool Montevideo?
The model expects 2.22 goals (Cerro Largo 0.93 · Liverpool Montevideo 1.29), with a 53% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Cerro Largo vs Liverpool Montevideo?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.