Football · Uruguay Clausura · 30/08, 20:30
Prediction: Penarol vs Nacional De Football
Team pages: Penarol · Nacional De Football
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.91Total
Penarol1.24
Nacional De Football0.67
1X2
Penarol
Draw
Nacional De Football
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 58%
Not both to score 54%
Most likely score
1-0 17%
Recent form · 10 last
Penarol
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Nacional De Football
3-5-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Penarol
2–4–0
Nacional De Football
(6 last)
- Nacional De Football0-1Penarol
- Penarol0-0Nacional De Football
- Nacional De Football0-0Penarol
- Penarol2-2Nacional De Football
- Penarol3-0Nacional De Football
- Penarol0-0Nacional De Football
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Penarol 1609 · Nacional De Football 1514
| Penarol | Draw | Nacional De Football | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 32% | 19% |
| Market | 51% | 27% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.91 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 72%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Penarol (rating 1609 vs 1514).
- H2H favours Penarol: 2-4-0.
- High corners: 13.2 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 11.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Penarol | Nacional De Football | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 0.7 | 0.8 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.5 | 0.4 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 20/70/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 6.8 | 2.4 / 6.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.7 / 0.3 | 6.2 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Penarol 2–4–0 Nacional De Football
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/03/26 Uruguay Apertura | Nacional De Football | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Penarol |
| 02/02/26 Uruguay Supercopa | Penarol | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Nacional De Football |
| 30/11/25 Uruguay Grand Final | Nacional De Football | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Penarol |
| 23/11/25 Uruguay Grand Final | Penarol | 2-2 HT 1-2 | Nacional De Football |
| 09/08/25 Uruguay Clausura | Penarol | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Nacional De Football |
| 06/07/25 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio | Penarol | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Nacional De Football |
Standings · Uruguay Clausura · Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montevideo Wanderers | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 15 |
| 2 | Nacional De Football | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 12 |
| 4 | Torque | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 12 |
| 5 | Juventud De Las Piedras | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 8 |
| 6 | Albion FC | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 6 |
| 7 | Club Atletico Progreso | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 6 |
| 8 | Danubio | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 4 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Penarol | Nacional De Football |
|---|---|---|
| Defensor Sporting | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Cerro | 0-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Montevideo Wanderers | 3-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Miramar Misiones | 2-2 D | 3-1 W |
| Danubio | 2-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Cerro Largo | 3-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Juventud De Las Piedras | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 5 W 1 D 1 L | 2 W 5 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Penarol (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Penarol
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Deportivo Maldonado Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 16/08 | Central Espanol Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 09/11 | Torque Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 02/11 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Clausura |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 25/10 | Cerro Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 9 | L |
| 19/10 | Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 11/10 | Miramar Misiones Uruguay Clausura |
0-2 | 2-2 | 14 | 8 | D |
| 05/10 | Danubio Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 27/09 | Cerro Largo Uruguay Clausura |
1-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 21/09 | Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
Nacional De Football
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | Club Atletico Progreso Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 15/08 | Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 09/08 | Boston River Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 1-2 | 11 | 4 | L |
| 09/11 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 7 | D |
| 01/11 | Cerro Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 7 | D |
| 26/10 | Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 18/10 | Miramar Misiones Uruguay Clausura |
3-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 12/10 | Danubio Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 04/10 | Cerro Largo Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 11 | W |
| 28/09 | Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Penarol vs Nacional De Football?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Penarol win (50%). Probabilities: Penarol 50%, draw 30%, Nacional De Football 20%.
How many goals are expected in Penarol vs Nacional De Football?
The model expects 1.91 goals (Penarol 1.24 · Nacional De Football 0.67), with a 59% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Penarol vs Nacional De Football?
The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.