Football · Uruguay Segunda · 23/08, 01:30

Prediction: Tacuarembo vs Atletico Fenix Montevideo

Team pages: Tacuarembo · Atletico Fenix Montevideo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.4Total

Tacuarembo1.19

Atletico Fenix Montevideo1.22

1X2

34% 30% 36%

Tacuarembo Draw Atletico Fenix Montevideo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Tacuarembo 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLWLDLLWDW

Atletico Fenix Montevideo 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDDLWLWDDL

Head-to-head

Tacuarembo 2–1–3 Atletico Fenix Montevideo (6 last)

Atletico Fenix Montevideo1-2Tacuarembo
Atletico Fenix Montevideo3-2Tacuarembo
Atletico Fenix Montevideo4-2Tacuarembo
Tacuarembo0-0Atletico Fenix Montevideo
Atletico Fenix Montevideo0-1Tacuarembo
Tacuarembo1-2Atletico Fenix Montevideo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tacuarembo 1493 · Atletico Fenix Montevideo 1494

	Tacuarembo	Draw	Atletico Fenix Montevideo
Our model	34%	30%	36%
Market	34%	30%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.4 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Atletico Fenix Montevideo: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 11.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tacuarembo	Atletico Fenix Montevideo
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 0.9	1.3 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/44/22%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.6	2 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6 / 0.3	5.6 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.00

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.98

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 21.93

Under 21.88

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 19:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.60▼	Pinn 2.69
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.25 → 2.50▲	Pinn 2.61 ★

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:29 +10’	2.90	3.00	2.25
20:26 +14’	2.80▼	3.00	2.30▲
11:40 +2’	2.60▼	3.00	2.50▲
17:37 +1’	2.55▼	3.00	2.55▲
18:58 +10’	2.60▲	3.00	2.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:19 +1’	3.19	2.84	2.24
11:16	3.00▼	2.94▲	2.39▲
13:48 +1’	2.97▼	2.94	2.41▲
20:35 +5’	2.92▼	2.99▲	2.41
00:22 +1’	2.84▼	3.02▲	2.45▲
03:04 +1’	2.81▼	3.02	2.43▼
07:42	2.75▼	3.11▲	2.42▼
04:18	2.77▲	3.13▲	2.43▲
11:34 +9’	2.90▲	3.04▼	2.39▼
17:15 +23’	2.69▼	2.98▼	2.61▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Tacuarembo 2–1–3 Atletico Fenix Montevideo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Uruguay Segunda	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	1-2 HT 0-0	Tacuarembo
05/04/26 Uruguay Segunda	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	3-2 HT 1-1	Tacuarembo
10/10/25 Uruguay Segunda	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	4-2 HT 2-0	Tacuarembo
20/07/25 Uruguay Segunda	Tacuarembo	0-0 HT 0-0	Atletico Fenix Montevideo
22/03/25 Uruguay Segunda	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	0-1 HT 0-1	Tacuarembo
29/10/23 Uruguay Cup	Tacuarembo	1-2 HT 1-1	Atletico Fenix Montevideo

Standings · Uruguay Segunda · Segunda Division 2026, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	6	3	2	1	13	7	11
2	Huracan DPA	6	2	4	0	9	6	10
3	Uruguay Montevideo	6	2	3	1	7	5	9
4	Cerrito	6	2	3	1	8	8	9
5	La Luz	6	1	4	1	5	6	7
6	CA Atenas	6	1	1	4	5	11	4
7	Tacuarembo	6	0	3	3	5	9	3

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tacuarembo	Atletico Fenix Montevideo
CA River Plate	1-0 W	3-1 W
Plaza Colonia	0-2 L	1-4 L
La Luz	0-2 L	0-0 D
Cerrito	0-0 D	1-1 D
CA Atenas	0-2 L	1-0 W
Paysandu FC	1-0 W	0-1 L
Huracan DPA	1-2 L	2-0 W
Uruguay Montevideo	1-0 W	2-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 4 L	3 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico Fenix Montevideo (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tacuarembo

WLWLDLLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Rentistas Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-0	1	5	W
09/08	Miramar Misiones Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-1	4	7	D
02/08	CA River Plate Uruguay Segunda	–	1-0	–	–	W
25/07	Plaza Colonia Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-2	8	5	L
13/07	La Luz Uruguay Segunda	0-2	0-2	2	6	L
05/07	Cerrito Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
27/06	CA Atenas Uruguay Segunda	0-2	0-2	3	6	L
20/06	Paysandu FC Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-0	4	14	W
13/06	Huracan DPA Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-2	3	6	L
07/06	Uruguay Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-0	6	3	W

Atletico Fenix Montevideo

WDDLWLWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Plaza Colonia Uruguay Segunda	1-3	1-4	3	7	L
08/08	La Luz Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
02/08	Cerrito Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-1	5	7	D
26/07	CA Atenas Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
14/07	Paysandu FC Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-1	6	8	L
05/07	Huracan DPA Uruguay Segunda	1-0	2-0	3	1	W
27/06	Uruguay Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	2-1	2-3	9	11	L
20/06	Club Oriental Uruguay Segunda	0-1	2-2	8	3	D
13/06	Colon FC Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-1	6	5	D
06/06	CA River Plate Uruguay Segunda	1-1	3-1	3	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tacuarembo vs Atletico Fenix Montevideo?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Atletico Fenix Montevideo win (36%). Probabilities: Tacuarembo 34%, draw 30%, Atletico Fenix Montevideo 36%.

How many goals are expected in Tacuarembo vs Atletico Fenix Montevideo?

The model expects 2.4 goals (Tacuarembo 1.19 · Atletico Fenix Montevideo 1.22), with a 54% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Tacuarembo vs Atletico Fenix Montevideo?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.