Football · Brazil Serie D · 30/08, 21:00
Prediction: SE Gama vs ASA
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.16Total
SE Gama1.33
ASA0.82
1X2
SE Gama
Draw
ASA
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 63%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-0 14%
Recent form · 10 last
SE Gama
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
ASA
6-4-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
SE Gama
0–1
ASA
(1 last)
- ASA2-0SE Gama
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · SE Gama 1525 · ASA 1576
| SE Gama | Draw | ASA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 31% | 22% |
| Market | 47% | 31% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.16 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours ASA (rating 1525 vs 1576).
- Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| SE Gama | ASA | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.1 | 1.8 / 0.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.7 / 5.2 | 2.2 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.7 / 0 | 4.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · SE Gama 0–0–1 ASA
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08/26 Brazil Serie D | ASA | 2-0 HT 0-0 | SE Gama |
Standings · Brazil Serie D · Brasileiro Serie D 2026, Group A10
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSA | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 25 | 8 | 21 |
| 2 | Juazeirense | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 9 | 17 |
| 3 | ASA | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 7 | 16 |
| 4 | Jacuipense | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 14 | 13 |
| 5 | CSE | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 9 |
| 6 | Atletico Alagoinhas | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 20 | 5 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
SE Gama
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | ASA Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 16/08 | Sao Jose PA Brazil Serie D |
3-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 08/08 | Sao Jose PA Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 26/07 | America RN Brazil Serie D |
2-2 | 3-2 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 20/07 | America RN Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 12/07 | Porto Velho EC Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 2-0 | 11 | 7 | W |
| 04/07 | Porto Velho EC Brazil Serie D |
0-2 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 28/06 | Mixto Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 20/06 | Mixto Brazil Serie D |
2-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 7 | W |
| 07/06 | Aparecidense Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 4 | D |
ASA
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | SE Gama Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 16/08 | Goiatuba Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 08/08 | Goiatuba Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 26/07 | Cianorte Brazil Serie D |
2-0 | 5-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 18/07 | Cianorte Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 12/07 | Ivinhema Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 07/07 | Ivinhema Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 2-1 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 27/06 | CS Sergipe Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 7 | W |
| 21/06 | CS Sergipe Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 13 | D |
| 14/06 | Jacuipense Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in SE Gama vs ASA?
According to our model, the most likely result is a SE Gama win (47%). Probabilities: SE Gama 47%, draw 31%, ASA 22%.
How many goals are expected in SE Gama vs ASA?
The model expects 2.16 goals (SE Gama 1.33 · ASA 0.82), with a 51% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in SE Gama vs ASA?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.