Football · Brazil Serie D · 28/08, 02:00
Prediction: Nacional AM vs CSA
Team pages: Nacional AM · CSA
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.13Total
Nacional AM1.06
CSA1.06
1X2
Nacional AM
Draw
CSA
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 64%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Nacional AM
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
CSA
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nacional AM 1498 · CSA 1515
| Nacional AM | Draw | CSA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 32% | 34% |
| Market | 34% | 32% | 34% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.13 goals · Bet365 line 2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- High corners: 12.2 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 10.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Nacional AM | CSA | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 0.8 | 1.7 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.5 | 0.7 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/60/30% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.9 | 3.4 / 7.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.4 / 0.1 | 5.4 / 0.1 |
Standings · Brazil Serie D · Brasileiro Serie D 2026, Group A10
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSA | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 25 | 8 | 21 |
| 2 | Juazeirense | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 9 | 17 |
| 3 | ASA | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 7 | 16 |
| 4 | Jacuipense | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 14 | 13 |
| 5 | CSE | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 9 |
| 6 | Atletico Alagoinhas | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 20 | 5 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nacional AM
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | ABC Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 08/08 | ABC Brazil Serie D |
0-2 | 1-2 | 10 | 5 | L |
| 25/07 | Iguatu Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 18/07 | Iguatu Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 12/07 | Capital CF Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 04/07 | Capital CF Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 28/06 | Araguaina Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 8 | D |
| 21/06 | Araguaina Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 14/06 | Monte Roraima Brazil Serie D |
3-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 31/05 | Manaus Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
CSA
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Uberlandia Brazil Serie D |
0-2 | 0-2 | 10 | 5 | L |
| 08/08 | Uberlandia Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 26/07 | Sao Luiz Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 19/07 | Sao Luiz Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 14/07 | Betim FC Brazil Serie D |
2-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 10 | W |
| 04/07 | Betim FC Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 27/06 | Lagarto Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 21/06 | Lagarto Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 14/06 | Atletico Alagoinhas Brazil Serie D |
2-0 | 7-1 | – | – | W |
| 31/05 | Jacuipense Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 12 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nacional AM vs CSA?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Nacional AM win (34%). Probabilities: Nacional AM 34%, draw 32%, CSA 34%.
How many goals are expected in Nacional AM vs CSA?
The model expects 2.13 goals (Nacional AM 1.06 · CSA 1.06), with a 52% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Nacional AM vs CSA?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.