Football · Paraguay Division Intermedia · 23/08, 15:00

Prediction: Carapegua vs Encarnacion FC

Team pages: Carapegua · Encarnacion FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.41Total

Carapegua1.43

Encarnacion FC0.98

1X2

47% 28% 25%

Carapegua Draw Encarnacion FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Carapegua 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Encarnacion FC 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Carapegua 2–3–0 Encarnacion FC (5 last)

Encarnacion FC2-2Carapegua
Carapegua2-1Encarnacion FC
Encarnacion FC0-0Carapegua
Encarnacion FC0-0Carapegua
Carapegua4-1Encarnacion FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Carapegua 1479 · Encarnacion FC 1413

	Carapegua	Draw	Encarnacion FC
Our model	46%	29%	25%
Market	47%	27%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.41 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Carapegua (rating 1479 vs 1413).
H2H favours Carapegua: 2-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Carapegua	Encarnacion FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.6	0.5 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.1	0.1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	0/60/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.9	1.5 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.4	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.30

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.90	Pinn 2.09 ★
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
03:11 +10’	1.90	3.30	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:14 +2’	2.09	3.09	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Carapegua 2–3–0 Encarnacion FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Encarnacion FC	2-2 HT 0-0	Carapegua
13/07/25 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Carapegua	2-1 HT 0-1	Encarnacion FC
05/04/25 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Encarnacion FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Carapegua
06/09/24 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Encarnacion FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Carapegua
01/06/24 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Carapegua	4-1 HT 1-1	Encarnacion FC

Standings · Paraguay Division Intermedia

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	12 de Junio de Villa Hayes	19	12	4	3	28	16	40
2	General Caballero JLM	20	12	4	4	41	24	40
3	Deportivo Santaní	19	11	3	5	29	16	36
4	Club Dr Benjamin Aceval	19	10	5	4	30	19	35
5	Sol de America	20	6	12	2	25	17	30
6	Resistencia FC	20	7	8	5	22	22	29
7	Independiente FBC	20	6	9	5	28	26	27
8	Club Atlético Tembetary	20	7	5	8	27	29	26
9	Carapegua	19	7	4	8	22	31	25
10	Guairena FC	20	6	6	8	19	23	24
11	Deportivo Capiata	20	5	9	6	24	26	24
12	Fernando de la Mora	20	6	5	9	22	30	23
13	Paraguari AC	19	5	5	9	19	24	20
14	Tacuary	19	3	9	7	23	31	18
15	Encarnacion FC	19	3	3	13	15	27	12
16	3 de Noviembre	19	1	7	11	17	30	10

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Carapegua	Encarnacion FC
Deportivo Santaní	0-2 L	0-1 L
Fernando de la Mora	2-0 W	0-0 D
3 de Noviembre	1-0 W	2-1 W
General Caballero JLM	1-2 L	0-1 L
Guairena FC	2-1 W	1-2 L
Resistencia FC	1-1 D	0-1 L
Sol de America	1-1 D	2-3 L
Deportivo Capiata	2-5 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Carapegua (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Carapegua

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Deportivo Santaní Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-2	0-2	5	3	L
09/08	Fernando de la Mora Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
03/08	3 de Noviembre Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
26/07	General Caballero JLM Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	1-2	2	5	L
18/07	Guairena FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	2-1	4	4	W
10/07	Resistencia FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	1-1	2	6	D
05/07	Sol de America Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	1-1	4	0	D
27/06	Deportivo Capiata Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-2	2-5	1	2	L
06/06	Independiente FBC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-2	0-2	5	4	L
31/05	Tacuary Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-2	2-2	6	5	D

Encarnacion FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	12 de Junio de Villa Hayes Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-2	0-2	2	3	L
08/08	Paraguari AC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
02/08	Deportivo Santaní Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
26/07	Fernando de la Mora Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
19/07	3 de Noviembre Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	2-1	7	4	W
11/07	General Caballero JLM Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	0-1	7	1	L
06/07	Guairena FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	1-2	3	2	L
30/06	Resistencia FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	0-1	3	7	L
08/06	Sol de America Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	2-3	5	7	L
31/05	Deportivo Capiata Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	0-1	1	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Carapegua vs Encarnacion FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Carapegua win (47%). Probabilities: Carapegua 47%, draw 28%, Encarnacion FC 25%.

How many goals are expected in Carapegua vs Encarnacion FC?

The model expects 2.41 goals (Carapegua 1.43 · Encarnacion FC 0.98), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Carapegua vs Encarnacion FC?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.