Football · Australia South Australia Premier League · 22/08, 11:30

Prediction: Metrostars vs Croydon FC

Team pages: Metrostars · Croydon FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.83Total

Metrostars2.38

Croydon FC1.46

1X2

57% 21% 22%

Metrostars Draw Croydon FC

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Metrostars 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWWLLDWW

Croydon FC 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LWDWWDDLDL

Head-to-head

Metrostars 4–2 Croydon FC (6 last)

Metrostars2-0Croydon FC
Croydon FC2-3Metrostars
Croydon FC4-1Metrostars
Metrostars1-2Croydon FC
Metrostars4-0Croydon FC
Croydon FC0-1Metrostars

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Metrostars 1532 · Croydon FC 1513

	Metrostars	Draw	Croydon FC
Our model	57%	21%	22%
Market	57%	21%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.83 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Metrostars: 4-0-2.
High corners: 12.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Metrostars	Croydon FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1	2.4 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	1 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.9	2.4 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.1	2.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.57

X4.20

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.98

2 (+1)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.93

Under 3.51.88

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
04:38 +20’	1.57	4.20	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Metrostars 4–0–2 Croydon FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/08/26 Australia South Australia Premier League	Metrostars	2-0 HT 1-0	Croydon FC
23/05/26 Australia South Australia Premier League	Croydon FC	2-3 HT 0-1	Metrostars
04/04/26 Australia Cup Qualifying	Croydon FC	4-1 HT 0-0	Metrostars
12/09/25 Australia South Australia Premier League	Metrostars	1-2 HT 0-0	Croydon FC
06/08/25 Australia South Australia Premier League	Metrostars	4-0 HT 0-0	Croydon FC
17/05/25 Australia South Australia Premier League	Croydon FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Metrostars

Standings · Australia South Australia Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Adelaide City	22	14	6	2	44	16	48
2	West Torrens Birkalla	22	15	2	5	55	27	47
3	Metrostars	22	13	5	4	53	23	44
4	Playford	22	10	5	7	42	31	35
5	White City FK Beograd	22	10	3	9	35	30	33
6	Croydon FC	22	8	6	8	46	41	30
7	Adelaide United NPL	22	7	8	7	33	32	29
8	Campbelltown City	22	8	5	9	35	36	29
9	Sturt Lions	22	8	3	11	35	36	27
10	West Adelaide	22	6	7	9	40	44	25
11	Adelaide Comets	22	5	5	12	25	38	20
12	Para Hills Knights	22	0	1	21	14	103	1

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Metrostars	Croydon FC
Adelaide Comets	1-0 W	4-1 W
Adelaide United NPL	1-1 D	3-0 W
West Adelaide	1-3 L	5-5 D
Playford	0-1 L	4-1 W
West Torrens Birkalla	3-1 W	0-1 L
Adelaide City	0-3 L	2-2 D
Sturt Lions	1-0 W	1-1 D
White City FK Beograd	2-1 W	3-4 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Croydon FC (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Metrostars

WWLWWLLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Croydon FC Australia South Australia Premier League	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
07/08	Adelaide Comets Australia South Australia Premier League	0-0	1-0	7	6	W
01/08	Adelaide United NPL Australia South Australia Premier League	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
25/07	West Adelaide Australia South Australia Premier League	0-1	1-3	10	3	L
18/07	Playford Australia South Australia Premier League	0-1	0-1	7	3	L
04/07	West Torrens Birkalla Australia South Australia Premier League	1-0	3-1	2	3	W
27/06	Para Hills Knights Australia South Australia Premier League	4-0	9-0	8	0	W
20/06	Adelaide City Australia South Australia Premier League	0-2	0-3	5	0	L
13/06	Sturt Lions Australia South Australia Premier League	0-0	1-0	1	5	W
06/06	White City FK Beograd Australia South Australia Premier League	2-0	2-1	5	8	W

Croydon FC

LWDWWDDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Metrostars Australia South Australia Premier League	0-1	0-2	8	4	L
08/08	Sturt Lions Australia South Australia Premier League	1-1	1-1	8	2	D
01/08	White City FK Beograd Australia South Australia Premier League	2-0	3-4	7	3	L
25/07	Campbelltown City Australia South Australia Premier League	1-1	2-2	9	6	D
18/07	Adelaide City Australia South Australia Premier League	0-1	2-2	9	4	D
03/07	Adelaide Comets Australia South Australia Premier League	2-1	4-1	2	0	W
26/06	Adelaide United NPL Australia South Australia Premier League	1-0	3-0	4	0	W
20/06	West Adelaide Australia South Australia Premier League	1-4	5-5	3	1	D
13/06	Playford Australia South Australia Premier League	2-1	4-1	8	3	W
05/06	West Torrens Birkalla Australia South Australia Premier League	0-0	0-1	5	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Metrostars vs Croydon FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Metrostars win (57%). Probabilities: Metrostars 57%, draw 21%, Croydon FC 22%.

How many goals are expected in Metrostars vs Croydon FC?

The model expects 3.83 goals (Metrostars 2.38 · Croydon FC 1.46), with a 51% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Metrostars vs Croydon FC?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.