Football · Australia South Australia Premier League · 29/08, 11:30

Prediction: Metrostars vs West Torrens Birkalla

Team pages: Metrostars · West Torrens Birkalla

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.97Total

Metrostars1.34

West Torrens Birkalla1.63

1X2

31% 26% 43%

Metrostars Draw West Torrens Birkalla

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Metrostars 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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West Torrens Birkalla 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Metrostars 4–1–1 West Torrens Birkalla (6 last)

Metrostars3-1West Torrens Birkalla
West Torrens Birkalla0-0Metrostars
Metrostars0-1West Torrens Birkalla
West Torrens Birkalla0-1Metrostars
West Torrens Birkalla0-5Metrostars
Metrostars3-0West Torrens Birkalla

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Metrostars 1540 · West Torrens Birkalla 1545

	Metrostars	Draw	West Torrens Birkalla
Our model	30%	26%	43%
Market	31%	26%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 2.97 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Metrostars: 4-1-1.
High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Metrostars	West Torrens Birkalla
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 0.9	2.8 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	0.9 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 6.1	2.6 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.1	2.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.50

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.02

Under 3.251.77

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 03:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.90▲	Bet365 2.90
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.60 → 2.05▼	Bet365 2.05

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
10:12 +3’	2.25	3.50	2.60
15:26 +3’	2.55▲	3.50	2.25▼
02:36 +23’	2.90▲	3.50	2.05▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Metrostars 4–1–1 West Torrens Birkalla

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/07/26 Australia South Australia Premier League	Metrostars	3-1 HT 1-0	West Torrens Birkalla
10/04/26 Australia South Australia Premier League	West Torrens Birkalla	0-0 HT 0-0	Metrostars
05/07/25 Australia South Australia Premier League	Metrostars	0-1 HT 0-1	West Torrens Birkalla
11/04/25 Australia South Australia Premier League	West Torrens Birkalla	0-1 HT 0-0	Metrostars
31/05/23 Australia FFA Cup Qualifying	West Torrens Birkalla	0-5 HT 0-3	Metrostars
30/07/22 Australia South Australia Premier League	Metrostars	3-0 HT 2-0	West Torrens Birkalla

Standings · Australia South Australia Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Adelaide City	22	14	6	2	44	16	48
2	West Torrens Birkalla	22	15	2	5	55	27	47
3	Metrostars	22	13	5	4	53	23	44
4	Playford	22	10	5	7	42	31	35
5	White City FK Beograd	22	10	3	9	35	30	33
6	Croydon FC	22	8	6	8	46	41	30
7	Adelaide United NPL	22	7	8	7	33	32	29
8	Campbelltown City	22	8	5	9	35	36	29
9	Sturt Lions	22	8	3	11	35	36	27
10	West Adelaide	22	6	7	9	40	44	25
11	Adelaide Comets	22	5	5	12	25	38	20
12	Para Hills Knights	22	0	1	21	14	103	1

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Metrostars	West Torrens Birkalla
Croydon FC	2-0 W	1-0 W
Adelaide United NPL	1-1 D	2-1 W
West Adelaide	1-3 L	6-1 W
Playford	0-1 L	1-0 W
Para Hills Knights	9-0 W	11-0 W
Adelaide City	0-3 L	0-1 L
Sturt Lions	1-0 W	4-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	6 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: West Torrens Birkalla (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Metrostars

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Croydon FC Australia South Australia Premier League	2-0	2-0	7	2	W
15/08	Croydon FC Australia South Australia Premier League	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
07/08	Adelaide Comets Australia South Australia Premier League	0-0	1-0	7	6	W
01/08	Adelaide United NPL Australia South Australia Premier League	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
25/07	West Adelaide Australia South Australia Premier League	0-1	1-3	10	3	L
18/07	Playford Australia South Australia Premier League	0-1	0-1	7	3	L
04/07	West Torrens Birkalla Australia South Australia Premier League	1-0	3-1	2	3	W
27/06	Para Hills Knights Australia South Australia Premier League	4-0	9-0	8	0	W
20/06	Adelaide City Australia South Australia Premier League	0-2	0-3	5	0	L
13/06	Sturt Lions Australia South Australia Premier League	0-0	1-0	1	5	W

West Torrens Birkalla

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Adelaide United NPL Australia South Australia Premier League	1-1	2-1	7	0	W
07/08	West Adelaide Australia South Australia Premier League	2-0	6-1	2	2	W
01/08	Playford Australia South Australia Premier League	0-0	1-0	8	1	W
25/07	Adelaide City Australia South Australia Premier League	0-1	0-1	6	0	L
17/07	Para Hills Knights Australia South Australia Premier League	4-0	11-0	8	2	W
04/07	Metrostars Australia South Australia Premier League	0-1	1-3	5	3	L
26/06	Sturt Lions Australia South Australia Premier League	2-1	4-1	6	2	W
20/06	White City FK Beograd Australia South Australia Premier League	0-2	0-2	6	6	L
12/06	Campbelltown City Australia South Australia Premier League	0-1	2-1	6	6	W
05/06	Croydon FC Australia South Australia Premier League	0-0	1-0	2	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Metrostars vs West Torrens Birkalla?

According to our model, the most likely result is an West Torrens Birkalla win (43%). Probabilities: Metrostars 31%, draw 26%, West Torrens Birkalla 43%.

How many goals are expected in Metrostars vs West Torrens Birkalla?

The model expects 2.97 goals (Metrostars 1.34 · West Torrens Birkalla 1.63), with a 57% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Metrostars vs West Torrens Birkalla?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.