Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 30/08, 22:00

Prediction: Emelec vs Leones FC

Team pages: Emelec · Leones FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.15Total

Emelec1.44

Leones FC0.7

1X2

54% 29% 17%

Emelec Draw Leones FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 64% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Emelec 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDDWLDLLDW

Leones FC 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWDWDWDLWL

Head-to-head

Emelec 0–1–1 Leones FC (2 last)

Leones FC2-0Emelec
Leones FC0-0Emelec

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Emelec 1492 · Leones FC 1523

	Emelec	Draw	Leones FC
Our model	54%	29%	17%
Market	54%	28%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.15 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Emelec	Leones FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.3	1.3 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.9	1.6 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.2	4.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.25

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.02

Under 2.251.77

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:29 +5’	1.70	3.25	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Emelec 0–1–1 Leones FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/05/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Leones FC	2-0 HT 1-0	Emelec
08/10/25 Ecuador Cup	Leones FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Emelec

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	26	22	1	3	64	26	67
2	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	26	12	7	7	45	23	43
3	Macara	25	12	6	7	33	25	42
4	SD Aucas	25	12	5	8	29	26	41
5	Barcelona Guayaquil	26	10	9	7	28	20	39
6	LDU Quito	25	11	5	9	24	20	38
7	Leones FC	26	9	8	9	28	28	35
8	Club Atletico Libertad	25	9	7	9	28	29	34
9	Mushuc Runa	26	8	9	9	32	34	33
10	Guayaquil City	26	8	9	9	25	29	33
11	Emelec	25	8	8	9	21	29	32
12	Deportivo Cuenca	26	9	5	12	22	32	32
13	Orense	26	8	6	12	30	39	30
14	Tecnico Universitario	26	8	2	16	23	37	26
15	Delfin SC	25	6	6	13	17	27	24
16	Manta FC	26	4	5	17	12	37	17

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Emelec	Leones FC
Guayaquil City	0-0 D	1-1 D
SD Aucas	0-2 L	0-3 L
Deportivo Cuenca	1-2 L	1-1 D
Independiente del Valle	1-6 L	2-3 L
Barcelona Guayaquil	0-0 D	1-1 D
Delfin SC	1-1 D	1-0 W
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	1-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 3 L	2 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Leones FC (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Emelec

WDDWLDLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	2-1	4	2	W
10/08	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	1	1	D
02/08	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
28/07	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-2	4	7	L
24/07	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-1	11	2	D
20/07	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-3	1-6	0	2	L
17/07	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-0	1	8	W
13/07	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
06/07	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
01/06	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	2	4	W

Leones FC

WWDWDWDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-3	4	5	L
15/08	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
08/08	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	0-3	6	3	L
03/08	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-1	6	7	D
26/07	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
23/07	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-1	9	5	D
18/07	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
16/07	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
11/07	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-0	3	11	W
04/07	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-1	3-1	7	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Emelec vs Leones FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Emelec win (54%). Probabilities: Emelec 54%, draw 29%, Leones FC 17%.

How many goals are expected in Emelec vs Leones FC?

The model expects 2.15 goals (Emelec 1.44 · Leones FC 0.7), with a 55% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Emelec vs Leones FC?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.