Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 30/08, 22:00

Prediction: Manta FC vs Barcelona Guayaquil

Team pages: Manta FC · Barcelona Guayaquil

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.09Total

Manta FC0.86

Barcelona Guayaquil1.23

1X2

26% 30% 44%

Manta FC Draw Barcelona Guayaquil

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Manta FC 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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Barcelona Guayaquil 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWLWLLDLDW

Head-to-head

Manta FC 1–2–3 Barcelona Guayaquil (6 last)

Barcelona Guayaquil1-1Manta FC
Barcelona Guayaquil1-2Manta FC
Manta FC2-3Barcelona Guayaquil
Manta FC1-1Barcelona Guayaquil
Barcelona Guayaquil2-0Manta FC
Manta FC2-3Barcelona Guayaquil

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Manta FC 1449 · Barcelona Guayaquil 1499

	Manta FC	Draw	Barcelona Guayaquil
Our model	25%	32%	43%
Market	26%	29%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 2.09 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Barcelona Guayaquil (rating 1449 vs 1499).
H2H favours Barcelona Guayaquil: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Manta FC	Barcelona Guayaquil
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.9	1.3 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1	0.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/40/60%	22/22/56%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.6	2.3 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.1	4.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.50

X3.20

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.02

2 (-0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.82

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:33 +1’	3.50	3.20	2.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Manta FC 1–2–3 Barcelona Guayaquil

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Barcelona Guayaquil	1-1 HT 1-0	Manta FC
14/06/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Barcelona Guayaquil	1-2 HT 0-2	Manta FC
15/02/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Manta FC	2-3 HT 1-1	Barcelona Guayaquil
22/01/25 America Friendlies	Manta FC	1-1 HT 1-0	Barcelona Guayaquil
26/07/21 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Barcelona Guayaquil	2-0 HT 0-0	Manta FC
21/02/21 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Manta FC	2-3 HT 2-0	Barcelona Guayaquil

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	26	22	1	3	64	26	67
2	SD Aucas	26	13	5	8	30	26	44
3	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	26	12	7	7	45	23	43
4	Macara	25	12	6	7	33	25	42
5	LDU Quito	26	12	5	9	26	20	41
6	Barcelona Guayaquil	26	10	9	7	28	20	39
7	Leones FC	26	9	8	9	28	28	35
8	Club Atletico Libertad	25	9	7	9	28	29	34
9	Mushuc Runa	26	8	9	9	32	34	33
10	Guayaquil City	26	8	9	9	25	29	33
11	Deportivo Cuenca	26	9	5	12	22	32	32
12	Emelec	26	8	8	10	21	31	32
13	Orense	26	8	6	12	30	39	30
14	Tecnico Universitario	26	8	2	16	23	37	26
15	Delfin SC	26	6	6	14	17	28	24
16	Manta FC	26	4	5	17	12	37	17

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Manta FC	Barcelona Guayaquil
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	1-5 L	1-2 L
Leones FC	0-2 L	1-1 D
Deportivo Cuenca	2-1 W	2-0 W
Tecnico Universitario	0-1 L	0-1 L
LDU Quito	1-1 D	0-1 L
SD Aucas	1-3 L	3-0 W
Macara	0-1 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 5 L	2 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Barcelona Guayaquil (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Manta FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-3	1-5	1	3	L
15/08	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
11/08	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	2-1	1	2	W
26/07	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	1	7	L
23/07	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-1	10	6	D
04/07	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-4	–	–	L
30/05	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	2-1	8	4	W
26/05	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-2	1-3	4	3	L
18/05	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
11/05	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	4	0	L

Barcelona Guayaquil

WWLWLLDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	3-0	5	4	W
16/08	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
09/08	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	1-2	6	2	L
03/08	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-1	4	7	D
27/07	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	8	5	L
22/07	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-2	2	4	L
05/07	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	–	2-0	–	–	W
02/06	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-1	7	5	L
25/05	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	2-1	8	4	W
17/05	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	3-0	1	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Manta FC vs Barcelona Guayaquil?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Barcelona Guayaquil win (44%). Probabilities: Manta FC 26%, draw 30%, Barcelona Guayaquil 44%.

How many goals are expected in Manta FC vs Barcelona Guayaquil?

The model expects 2.09 goals (Manta FC 0.86 · Barcelona Guayaquil 1.23), with a 55% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Manta FC vs Barcelona Guayaquil?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.