Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 30/08, 22:00

Prediction: Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica del Ecuador

Team pages: Independiente del Valle · Universidad Catolica del Ecuador

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.16Total

Independiente del Valle2.03

Universidad Catolica del Ecuador1.13

1X2

57% 24% 19%

Independiente del Valle Draw Universidad Catolica del Ecuador

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Independiente del Valle 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

WWLWWWWWWW

Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LDWLLWDLDW

Head-to-head

Independiente del Valle 4–2 Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (6 last)

Universidad Catolica del Ecuador0-3Independiente del Valle
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador2-3Independiente del Valle
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador0-1Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle0-2Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
Independiente del Valle1-2Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador0-3Independiente del Valle

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Independiente del Valle 1660 · Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 1512

	Independiente del Valle	Draw	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
Our model	57%	23%	20%
Market	57%	24%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 3.16 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Independiente del Valle (rating 1660 vs 1512).
H2H favours Independiente del Valle: 4-0-2.
High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Independiente del Valle	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 0.9	1.6 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.2	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/20/10%	22/67/11%
Corners (HT / FT)	4 / 6.8	2.7 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.1	3.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.80

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:34 +1’	1.61	3.80	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Independiente del Valle 4–0–2 Universidad Catolica del Ecuador

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/05/26 Ecuador Super Cup	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	0-3 HT 0-2	Independiente del Valle
01/05/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	2-3 HT 1-3	Independiente del Valle
14/12/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	0-1 HT 0-0	Independiente del Valle
08/11/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Independiente del Valle	0-2 HT 0-2	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
14/10/25 Ecuador Cup	Independiente del Valle	1-2 HT 1-2	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
29/06/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	0-3 HT 0-3	Independiente del Valle

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	26	22	1	3	64	26	67
2	SD Aucas	26	13	5	8	30	26	44
3	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	26	12	7	7	45	23	43
4	Macara	25	12	6	7	33	25	42
5	LDU Quito	26	12	5	9	26	20	41
6	Barcelona Guayaquil	26	10	9	7	28	20	39
7	Leones FC	26	9	8	9	28	28	35
8	Club Atletico Libertad	25	9	7	9	28	29	34
9	Mushuc Runa	26	8	9	9	32	34	33
10	Guayaquil City	26	8	9	9	25	29	33
11	Deportivo Cuenca	26	9	5	12	22	32	32
12	Emelec	26	8	8	10	21	31	32
13	Orense	26	8	6	12	30	39	30
14	Tecnico Universitario	26	8	2	16	23	37	26
15	Delfin SC	26	6	6	14	17	28	24
16	Manta FC	26	4	5	17	12	37	17

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Independiente del Valle	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
Delfin SC	3-2 W	2-2 D
Manta FC	4-0 W	5-1 W
Guayaquil City	4-2 W	0-0 D
Club Atletico Libertad	2-3 L	1-2 L
Macara	3-0 W	1-1 D
Barcelona Guayaquil	1-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Independiente del Valle (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Independiente del Valle

WWLWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	3-2	9	5	W
15/08	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	3-1	3-2	9	4	W
08/08	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-0	2	1	W
02/08	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
22/07	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	3-0	5	4	W
04/07	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	4-0	–	–	W
31/05	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	4-2	4	5	W
23/05	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	2-3	12	6	L
16/05	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	3-0	7	4	W
10/05	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-0	6	5	W

Universidad Catolica del Ecuador

LDWLLWDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	3-1	5-1	6	3	W
18/08	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
10/08	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-2	5	6	L
27/07	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	4	0	D
22/07	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-1	8	4	W
06/07	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	–	2-3	–	–	L
01/06	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
23/05	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	2-1	5	6	W
16/05	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	2-2	7	5	D
09/05	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-2	3	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica del Ecuador?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Independiente del Valle win (57%). Probabilities: Independiente del Valle 57%, draw 24%, Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 19%.

How many goals are expected in Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica del Ecuador?

The model expects 3.16 goals (Independiente del Valle 2.03 · Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 1.13), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica del Ecuador?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.