Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 23/08, 22:00

Prediction: Leones FC vs Independiente del Valle

Team pages: Leones FC · Independiente del Valle

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.89Total

Leones FC0.98

Independiente del Valle1.91

1X2

18% 24% 58%

Leones FC Draw Independiente del Valle

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Leones FC 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

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Independiente del Valle 10-0-0 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Leones FC 0–1 Independiente del Valle (1 last)

Independiente del Valle2-1Leones FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Leones FC 1521 · Independiente del Valle 1653

	Leones FC	Draw	Independiente del Valle
Our model	18%	24%	58%
Market	18%	25%	58%

Estimated total (ours) 2.89 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Independiente del Valle (rating 1521 vs 1653).
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Leones FC	Independiente del Valle
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.3	2.8 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1	1.4 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	80/20/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 5.2	3.1 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.3	3.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

15.25

X3.75

21.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)2.02

2 (-0.75)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.2%

Time*	1	X	2
01:37 +5’	5.25	3.75	1.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Leones FC 0–0–1 Independiente del Valle

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Independiente del Valle	2-1 HT 1-1	Leones FC

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	25	21	1	3	61	24	64
2	Macara	24	12	5	7	32	24	41
3	SD Aucas	24	12	5	7	29	25	41
4	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	24	11	6	7	39	21	39
5	Barcelona Guayaquil	25	9	9	7	25	20	36
6	LDU Quito	24	10	5	9	23	20	35
7	Leones FC	25	9	8	8	26	25	35
8	Club Atletico Libertad	25	9	7	9	28	29	34
9	Mushuc Runa	25	8	8	9	32	34	32
10	Emelec	25	8	8	9	21	29	32
11	Deportivo Cuenca	25	9	4	12	22	32	31
12	Guayaquil City	25	7	9	9	22	27	30
13	Orense	25	8	6	11	30	36	30
14	Tecnico Universitario	25	8	2	15	21	34	26
15	Delfin SC	25	6	6	13	17	27	24
16	Manta FC	25	4	5	16	11	32	17

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Leones FC	Independiente del Valle
Manta FC	2-0 W	1-0 W
SD Aucas	0-3 L	3-0 W
LDU Quito	0-6 L	2-0 W
Delfin SC	1-0 W	3-2 W
Deportivo Cuenca	1-1 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	5 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Independiente del Valle (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Leones FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
08/08	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	0-3	6	3	L
03/08	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-1	6	7	D
30/07	LDU Quito Ecuador Cup	0-5	0-6	6	5	L
26/07	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
23/07	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-1	9	5	D
18/07	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
16/07	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
11/07	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-0	3	11	W
04/07	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-1	3-1	7	6	W

Independiente del Valle

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	3-1	3-2	9	4	W
08/08	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-0	2	1	W
02/08	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
30/07	Manta FC Ecuador Cup	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
26/07	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	3-2	4	6	W
22/07	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	3-0	5	4	W
20/07	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	3-0	6-1	6	2	W
16/07	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	3-0	3	4	W
11/07	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	4-1	6	4	W
09/07	CD Vargas Torres Ecuador Cup	1-0	2-0	4	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Leones FC vs Independiente del Valle?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Independiente del Valle win (58%). Probabilities: Leones FC 18%, draw 24%, Independiente del Valle 58%.

How many goals are expected in Leones FC vs Independiente del Valle?

The model expects 2.89 goals (Leones FC 0.98 · Independiente del Valle 1.91), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Leones FC vs Independiente del Valle?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.