Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 23/08, 22:00

Prediction: Deportivo Cuenca vs Mushuc Runa

Team pages: Deportivo Cuenca · Mushuc Runa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.26Total

Deportivo Cuenca1.26

Mushuc Runa1

1X2

42% 30% 28%

Deportivo Cuenca Draw Mushuc Runa

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo Cuenca 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

DLLDLLWLLL

Mushuc Runa 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWLLWDLWWD

Head-to-head

Deportivo Cuenca 2–2–2 Mushuc Runa (6 last)

Mushuc Runa4-1Deportivo Cuenca
Deportivo Cuenca1-0Mushuc Runa
Mushuc Runa3-1Deportivo Cuenca
Mushuc Runa1-1Deportivo Cuenca
Deportivo Cuenca5-0Mushuc Runa
Mushuc Runa1-1Deportivo Cuenca

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo Cuenca 1417 · Mushuc Runa 1512

	Deportivo Cuenca	Draw	Mushuc Runa
Our model	41%	31%	28%
Market	42%	29%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.26 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mushuc Runa (rating 1417 vs 1512).
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo Cuenca	Mushuc Runa
Goals for / against (FT)	0.4 / 1.5	1.3 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.2	2.3 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.3	3.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.20

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.93

2 (+0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8%

Time*	1	X	2
01:37 +5’	2.20	3.20	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Cuenca 2–2–2 Mushuc Runa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Mushuc Runa	4-1 HT 2-1	Deportivo Cuenca
28/06/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Deportivo Cuenca	1-0 HT 0-0	Mushuc Runa
01/03/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Mushuc Runa	3-1 HT 2-1	Deportivo Cuenca
19/10/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Mushuc Runa	1-1 HT 0-0	Deportivo Cuenca
27/04/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Deportivo Cuenca	5-0 HT 4-0	Mushuc Runa
21/10/23 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Mushuc Runa	1-1 HT 1-1	Deportivo Cuenca

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	25	21	1	3	61	24	64
2	Macara	24	12	5	7	32	24	41
3	SD Aucas	24	12	5	7	29	25	41
4	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	24	11	6	7	39	21	39
5	Barcelona Guayaquil	25	9	9	7	25	20	36
6	LDU Quito	24	10	5	9	23	20	35
7	Leones FC	25	9	8	8	26	25	35
8	Club Atletico Libertad	25	9	7	9	28	29	34
9	Mushuc Runa	25	8	8	9	32	34	32
10	Emelec	25	8	8	9	21	29	32
11	Deportivo Cuenca	25	9	4	12	22	32	31
12	Guayaquil City	25	7	9	9	22	27	30
13	Orense	25	8	6	11	30	36	30
14	Tecnico Universitario	25	8	2	15	21	34	26
15	Delfin SC	25	6	6	13	17	27	24
16	Manta FC	25	4	5	16	11	32	17

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo Cuenca	Mushuc Runa
Orense	0-2 L	2-1 W
Manta FC	1-2 L	2-1 W
Independiente del Valle	0-1 L	1-4 L
Emelec	2-1 W	1-1 D
Macara	0-3 L	1-2 L
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	0-2 L	3-2 W
Barcelona Guayaquil	0-2 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 6 L	3 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Mushuc Runa (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Deportivo Cuenca

DLLDLLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-2	4	2	L
11/08	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-2	8	2	L
02/08	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	1	2	L
28/07	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-1	12	7	W
22/07	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-3	3	6	L
18/07	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-2	4	1	L
16/07	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-1	4	4	D
12/07	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-1	5	6	L
05/07	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	0-2	5	3	L
02/06	CD La Union Ecuador Cup	0-0	0-0	6	5	D

Mushuc Runa

LWLLWDLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
10/08	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	3-0	5	7	W
01/08	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-1	2-1	6	4	W
27/07	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-2	13	2	L
24/07	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-1	7	2	D
20/07	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	2-1	5	6	W
14/07	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-2	4	5	L
11/07	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	1-4	6	4	L
06/07	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	3-2	1	2	W
03/06	Gualaceo SC Ecuador Cup	0-1	0-1	4	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo Cuenca vs Mushuc Runa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportivo Cuenca win (42%). Probabilities: Deportivo Cuenca 42%, draw 30%, Mushuc Runa 28%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo Cuenca vs Mushuc Runa?

The model expects 2.26 goals (Deportivo Cuenca 1.26 · Mushuc Runa 1), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Cuenca vs Mushuc Runa?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.