Football · Spain Copa Federacion · 16/08, 21:00

Prediction: CF Talavera vs CD Guadalajara

Team pages: CD Guadalajara

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.38Total

CF Talavera1.17

CD Guadalajara1.21

1X2

35% 28% 37%

CF Talavera Draw CD Guadalajara

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

CF Talavera 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLDLWLDWWD

CD Guadalajara 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

WLLDDWLDLD

Head-to-head

CF Talavera 2–3–1 CD Guadalajara (6 last)

CD Guadalajara1-1CF Talavera
CF Talavera2-0CD Guadalajara
CF Talavera0-0CD Guadalajara
CD Guadalajara2-0CF Talavera
CF Talavera0-0CD Guadalajara
CD Guadalajara1-2CF Talavera

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CF Talavera 1533 · CD Guadalajara 1467

	CF Talavera	Draw	CD Guadalajara
Our model	34%	30%	36%
Market	36%	26%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.38 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CF Talavera (rating 1533 vs 1467).
H2H favours CF Talavera: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CF Talavera	CD Guadalajara
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.9	1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.2	2.8 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.1	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.50

22.35

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.98

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Pinn 2.62 ★
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
15:35 +4’	2.50	3.50	2.35

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:34 +4’	2.59	3.29	2.30
20:04	2.62▲	3.34▲	2.33▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CF Talavera 2–3–1 CD Guadalajara

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	CD Guadalajara	1-1 HT 0-1	CF Talavera
04/01/26 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	CF Talavera	2-0 HT 1-0	CD Guadalajara
01/02/25 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	CF Talavera	0-0 HT 0-0	CD Guadalajara
22/09/24 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	CD Guadalajara	2-0 HT 1-0	CF Talavera
18/02/24 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	CF Talavera	0-0 HT 0-0	CD Guadalajara
11/10/23 Spain Copa Federacion	CD Guadalajara	1-2 HT 0-1	CF Talavera

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CF Talavera	CD Guadalajara
Cacereno	2-1 W	0-1 L
Real Madrid B	1-2 L	2-2 D
Athletic Bilbao B	2-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: CF Talavera (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

CF Talavera

WLDLWLDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	Illescas Europe Friendlies	1-1	1-1	6	5	D
06/08	CD Villacanas Europe Friendlies	2-0	3-0	2	0	W
23/05	Cacereno Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	2-1	4	5	W
17/05	Ourense Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-0	12	5	D
10/05	Osasuna B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	1-2	7	6	L
02/05	Arenas Club de Getxo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	2-1	6	7	W
25/04	Real Madrid B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-2	–	–	L
19/04	Lugo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-0	2	9	D
12/04	Zamora CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
04/04	Athletic Bilbao B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	2-1	2	4	W

CD Guadalajara

WLLDDWLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Toledo Spain Copa Federacion	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
05/08	Cacereno Europe Friendlies	0-1	0-1	3	0	L
23/05	Real Madrid B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	2-1	2-2	3	4	D
17/05	Athletic Bilbao B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	1-2	4	3	L
09/05	CD Arenteiro Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	2-0	2-0	5	6	W
02/05	Real Aviles CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-1	2-2	4	9	D
24/04	Cacereno Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	1-1	8	3	D
19/04	Pontevedra Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-1	1-4	3	3	L
12/04	Unionistas de Salamanca CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	0-1	1	7	L
03/04	Racing Ferrol Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-0	9	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CF Talavera vs CD Guadalajara?

According to our model, the most likely result is an CD Guadalajara win (37%). Probabilities: CF Talavera 35%, draw 28%, CD Guadalajara 37%.

How many goals are expected in CF Talavera vs CD Guadalajara?

The model expects 2.38 goals (CF Talavera 1.17 · CD Guadalajara 1.21), with a 57% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in CF Talavera vs CD Guadalajara?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.