Football · Spain Copa Federacion · 16/08, 20:00
Prediction: Cacereno vs Villanovense
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Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.77Total
Cacereno1.86
Villanovense0.91
1X2
Cacereno
Draw
Villanovense
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Cacereno
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Villanovense
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Cacereno
3–1–2
Villanovense
(6 last)
- Villanovense0-2Cacereno
- Villanovense0-2Cacereno
- Cacereno0-1Villanovense
- Villanovense0-0Cacereno
- Cacereno1-0Villanovense
- Villanovense2-0Cacereno
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cacereno 1527 · Villanovense 1499
| Cacereno | Draw | Villanovense | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 24% | 17% |
| Market | 60% | 22% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.77 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Cacereno: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cacereno | Villanovense | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.2 | 1.4 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.2 | 0.8 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 50/25/25% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 3.2 | 2.5 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0.1 | 5.5 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cacereno 3–1–2 Villanovense
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/07/26 Europe Friendlies | Villanovense | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Cacereno |
| 06/08/25 Europe Friendlies | Villanovense | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Cacereno |
| 21/01/24 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 | Cacereno | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Villanovense |
| 10/09/23 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 | Villanovense | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Cacereno |
| 19/02/23 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 | Cacereno | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Villanovense |
| 02/10/22 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 | Villanovense | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Cacereno |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cacereno
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08 | Real Jaen Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-3 | 0 | 6 | L |
| 05/08 | CD Guadalajara Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 29/07 | Villanovense Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 24/07 | Real Jaen Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 23/05 | CF Talavera Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
1-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 17/05 | Zamora CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 09/05 | Real Madrid B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
2-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 03/05 | CD Arenteiro Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 24/04 | CD Guadalajara Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 17/04 | Celta Fortuna Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-1 | 0-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
Villanovense
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/07 | Cacereno Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 10/05 | CF Jaraiz Spain Tercera Group 14 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 03/05 | CP Montehermoso Spain Tercera Group 14 |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 26/04 | Jerez Spain Tercera Group 14 |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 19/04 | CD Cabeza del Buey Spain Tercera Group 14 |
2-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 9 | W |
| 12/04 | AD Llerenense Spain Tercera Group 14 |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 05/04 | CD Badajoz Spain Tercera Group 14 |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 28/03 | At. Pueblonuevo Spain Tercera Group 14 |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 22/03 | UD Montijo Spain Tercera Group 14 |
1-0 | 3-1 | 9 | 9 | W |
| 15/03 | Moralo Spain Tercera Group 14 |
– | 0-3 | – | – | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cacereno vs Villanovense?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Cacereno win (59%). Probabilities: Cacereno 59%, draw 23%, Villanovense 17%.
How many goals are expected in Cacereno vs Villanovense?
The model expects 2.77 goals (Cacereno 1.86 · Villanovense 0.91), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Cacereno vs Villanovense?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.