Football · Spain Copa Federacion · 16/08, 19:00
Prediction: Marino de Luanco vs CD Colunga
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Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.98Total
Marino de Luanco2.02
CD Colunga0.96
1X2
Marino de Luanco
Draw
CD Colunga
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Marino de Luanco
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
CD Colunga
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Marino de Luanco
3–2–0
CD Colunga
(5 last)
- CD Colunga1-1Marino de Luanco
- Marino de Luanco2-1CD Colunga
- CD Colunga1-1Marino de Luanco
- Marino de Luanco3-0CD Colunga
- Marino de Luanco1-0CD Colunga
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Marino de Luanco 1516 · CD Colunga 1421
| Marino de Luanco | Draw | CD Colunga | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 23% | 16% |
| Market | 60% | 25% | 15% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.98 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Marino de Luanco (rating 1516 vs 1421).
- H2H favours Marino de Luanco: 3-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Marino de Luanco | CD Colunga | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1 | 0.9 / 2.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 1.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 0/50/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 3.8 | – / 1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.1 | 4.5 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Marino de Luanco 3–2–0 CD Colunga
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/01/19 Spain Tercera Group 2 | CD Colunga | 1-1 | Marino de Luanco |
| 26/08/18 Spain Tercera Group 2 | Marino de Luanco | 2-1 | CD Colunga |
| 28/01/18 Spain Tercera Group 2 | CD Colunga | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Marino de Luanco |
| 10/09/17 Spain Tercera Group 2 | Marino de Luanco | 3-0 | CD Colunga |
| 12/03/17 Spain Tercera Group 2 | Marino de Luanco | 1-0 HT 1-0 | CD Colunga |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marino de Luanco
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08 | UP Langreo Europe Friendlies |
4-0 | 6-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 08/08 | Ponferradina Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-3 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 29/07 | Real Aviles CF Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 18/07 | Sporting Gijon Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 03/05 | Numancia Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 26/04 | UD Samano Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1 |
3-1 | 4-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 19/04 | SD Sarriana Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 12/04 | Real Oviedo B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 05/04 | Coruxo Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 29/03 | UD Ourense Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
CD Colunga
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05 | Gijon Industrial Spain Tercera Group 2 |
1-3 | 2-6 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 03/05 | Praviano Spain Tercera Group 2 |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 26/04 | Lenense Spain Tercera Group 2 |
– | 3-3 | – | – | D |
| 19/04 | El San Martin Spain Tercera Group 2 |
– | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 12/04 | Covadonga Spain Tercera Group 2 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 02/04 | Aviles Stadium CF Spain Tercera Group 2 |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 29/03 | UD Llanera Spain Tercera Group 2 |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 22/03 | Real Titanico Laviana Spain Tercera Group 2 |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 15/03 | Llanes Spain Tercera Group 2 |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 08/03 | Sporting Gijon B Spain Tercera Group 2 |
– | 0-5 | – | – | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Marino de Luanco vs CD Colunga?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Marino de Luanco win (60%). Probabilities: Marino de Luanco 60%, draw 24%, CD Colunga 15%.
How many goals are expected in Marino de Luanco vs CD Colunga?
The model expects 2.98 goals (Marino de Luanco 2.02 · CD Colunga 0.96), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Marino de Luanco vs CD Colunga?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.