Football · USA USL League One · 22/10, 00:30

Prediction: Sarasota Paradise vs FC Naples

Team pages: Sarasota Paradise · FC Naples

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.71Total

Sarasota Paradise1.59

FC Naples1.12

1X2

48% 26% 26%

Sarasota Paradise Draw FC Naples

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Sarasota Paradise 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDWDDWWLWW

FC Naples 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWLLDDWWWW

Head-to-head

Sarasota Paradise 1–2 FC Naples (3 last)

FC Naples0-2Sarasota Paradise
FC Naples2-0Sarasota Paradise
Sarasota Paradise1-2FC Naples

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sarasota Paradise 1569 · FC Naples 1538

	Sarasota Paradise	Draw	FC Naples
Our model	47%	27%	26%
Market	49%	24%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.71 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Naples: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sarasota Paradise	FC Naples
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 1.3	1.2 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.7 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/20/10%	60/10/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.7	1.5 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.1	4.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.70

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.88

2 (+0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 11:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 1.83▼	Bet365 1.83
X	3.50 → 3.70▲	Pinn 3.71
2	3.00 → 3.30▲	Pinn 3.93 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:04 +1’	2.00	3.50	3.00
13:59 +7’	1.95▼	3.50	3.10▲
10:59 +4’	1.83▼	3.70▲	3.30▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:35 +31’	1.75	3.73	3.96
01:23 +41’	1.76▲	3.71▼	3.93▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sarasota Paradise 1–0–2 FC Naples

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/06/26 USA USL Cup	FC Naples	0-2 HT 0-1	Sarasota Paradise
12/04/26 USA USL League One	FC Naples	2-0 HT 0-0	Sarasota Paradise
19/03/25 USA US Open Cup	Sarasota Paradise	1-2 HT 0-0	FC Naples

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Charlotte Independence	31	20	6	5	73	42	66
2	Union Omaha	31	19	4	8	54	34	61
3	Forward Madison FC	31	16	7	8	54	30	55
4	AC Boise	31	16	7	8	49	41	55
5	One Knoxville SC	32	15	9	8	52	36	54
6	Spokane Velocity FC	30	16	5	9	47	40	53
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	31	14	4	13	50	44	46
8	Fort Wayne FC	31	12	9	10	47	40	45
9	FC Naples	30	12	4	14	35	44	40
10	Westchester SC	31	11	6	14	53	49	39
11	Sarasota Paradise	30	11	6	13	45	46	39
12	Corpus Christi FC	31	9	9	13	34	49	36
13	Antelope Valley Alta	31	8	9	14	38	46	33
14	Portland Hearts of Pine	31	7	10	14	44	57	31
15	Greenville Triumph SC	31	7	6	18	36	60	27
16	Richmond Kickers	31	7	5	19	37	64	26
17	New York Cosmos	30	7	4	19	36	62	25

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sarasota Paradise	FC Naples
Fort Wayne FC	3-1 W	2-2 D
Richmond Kickers	3-2 W	2-0 W
Greenville Triumph SC	6-0 W	0-4 L
New York Cosmos	2-1 W	2-1 W
Union Omaha	1-1 D	2-0 W
Chattanooga Red Wolves	3-2 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 0 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sarasota Paradise

WDWDDWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	2-1	3-1	4	6	W
11/10	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	1-2	3-2	6	6	W
04/10	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	1-1	2-3	3	8	L
26/09	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	3-1	4-1	8	7	W
20/09	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	4-0	6-0	7	2	W
13/09	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
06/09	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	1-0	1-1	1	2	D
03/09	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	0-0	2-1	3	7	W
23/08	Union Omaha USA USL League One	1-0	1-1	5	8	D
20/08	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	3-1	3-2	8	2	W

FC Naples

WWLLDDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
08/10	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
04/10	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	1-0	2-1	10	3	W
27/09	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	1-0	1-0	3	10	W
20/09	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	2-0	2-2	3	8	D
12/09	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
06/09	AC Boise USA USL League One	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
30/08	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	0-1	0-4	5	3	L
27/08	Union Omaha USA USL League One	1-0	2-0	1	3	W
23/08	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	0-1	2-1	6	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sarasota Paradise vs FC Naples?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sarasota Paradise win (48%). Probabilities: Sarasota Paradise 48%, draw 26%, FC Naples 26%.

How many goals are expected in Sarasota Paradise vs FC Naples?

The model expects 2.71 goals (Sarasota Paradise 1.59 · FC Naples 1.12), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Sarasota Paradise vs FC Naples?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.