Football · Austria Bundesliga · 02/09, 20:30

Prediction: FC Salzburg vs Rapid Vienna

Team pages: FC Salzburg · Rapid Vienna

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.93Total

FC Salzburg1.71

Rapid Vienna1.22

1X2

48% 25% 27%

FC Salzburg Draw Rapid Vienna

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Salzburg 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWWLDLLWDW

Rapid Vienna 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLLLWWWW

Head-to-head

FC Salzburg 3–3 Rapid Vienna (6 last)

Rapid Vienna1-0FC Salzburg
FC Salzburg0-1Rapid Vienna
Rapid Vienna1-0FC Salzburg
FC Salzburg2-1Rapid Vienna
FC Salzburg4-2Rapid Vienna
Rapid Vienna0-2FC Salzburg

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Salzburg 1559 · Rapid Vienna 1627

	FC Salzburg	Draw	Rapid Vienna
Our model	48%	26%	26%
Market	48%	25%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.93 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Rapid Vienna (rating 1559 vs 1627).
High corners: 12.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Salzburg	Rapid Vienna
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.3	1.7 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.9 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.4 / 7.2	2.2 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.75

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 04:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 1.95▼	Bet365 1.95
X	3.60 → 3.75▲	Bet365 3.75
2	3.40 → 3.50▲	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 6.5%

Time*	1	X	2
01:38 +5’	2.00	3.60	3.40
04:38 +1’	1.95▼	3.75▲	3.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Salzburg 3–0–3 Rapid Vienna

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Austria Bundesliga	Rapid Vienna	1-0 HT 0-0	FC Salzburg
15/03/26 Austria Bundesliga	FC Salzburg	0-1 HT 0-0	Rapid Vienna
08/03/26 Austria Bundesliga	Rapid Vienna	1-0 HT 1-0	FC Salzburg
05/10/25 Austria Bundesliga	FC Salzburg	2-1 HT 1-1	Rapid Vienna
24/05/25 Austria Bundesliga	FC Salzburg	4-2 HT 3-1	Rapid Vienna
30/03/25 Austria Bundesliga	Rapid Vienna	0-2 HT 0-1	FC Salzburg

Standings · Austria Bundesliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Rapid Vienna	3	3	0	0	11	1	9
2	LASK Linz	3	3	0	0	9	1	9
3	SK Sturm Graz	4	2	2	0	5	2	8
4	FC Salzburg	3	2	1	0	5	1	7
5	Austria Lustenau	4	1	2	1	5	5	5
6	Wolfsberger AC	3	1	1	1	5	3	4
7	SV Ried	4	1	1	2	4	7	4
8	FK Austria Vienna	3	1	0	2	2	5	3
9	Hartberg	4	1	0	3	2	6	3
10	Grazer AK	4	1	0	3	2	13	3
11	SCR Altach	4	1	0	3	4	5	3
12	WSG Swarovski Tirol	3	0	1	2	2	7	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Salzburg	Rapid Vienna
Hartberg	1-0 W	0-2 L
LASK Linz	1-2 L	1-3 L
SK Sturm Graz	1-1 D	0-2 L
FK Austria Vienna	3-1 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: FC Salzburg (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Salzburg

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	WSG Swarovski Tirol Austria Bundesliga	2-0	3-0	7	3	W
09/08	Wolfsberger AC Austria Bundesliga	0-0	1-1	8	6	D
01/08	Hartberg Austria Bundesliga	0-0	1-0	19	0	W
17/05	Hartberg Austria Bundesliga	0-2	1-3	13	2	L
10/05	LASK Linz Austria Bundesliga	0-2	1-2	5	2	L
03/05	SK Sturm Graz Austria Bundesliga	1-0	1-1	4	2	D
26/04	Rapid Vienna Austria Bundesliga	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
22/04	FK Austria Vienna Austria Bundesliga	2-1	3-1	5	5	W
19/04	FK Austria Vienna Austria Bundesliga	2-0	3-1	1	6	W
10/04	LASK Linz Austria Bundesliga	1-1	2-3	4	1	L

Rapid Vienna

LWLLLLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Grazer AK Austria Bundesliga	5-0	8-0	8	4	W
09/08	SV Ried Austria Bundesliga	1-0	2-1	4	2	W
02/08	SCR Altach Austria Bundesliga	1-0	1-0	6	2	W
25/05	SV Ried Austria Bundesliga	1-0	3-0	7	1	W
22/05	SV Ried Austria Bundesliga	0-1	1-2	5	2	L
17/05	SK Sturm Graz Austria Bundesliga	0-0	0-2	3	1	L
10/05	FK Austria Vienna Austria Bundesliga	0-1	0-2	4	2	L
04/05	LASK Linz Austria Bundesliga	1-0	1-3	0	1	L
26/04	FC Salzburg Austria Bundesliga	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
22/04	Hartberg Austria Bundesliga	0-1	0-2	11	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Salzburg vs Rapid Vienna?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Salzburg win (48%). Probabilities: FC Salzburg 48%, draw 25%, Rapid Vienna 27%.

How many goals are expected in FC Salzburg vs Rapid Vienna?

The model expects 2.93 goals (FC Salzburg 1.71 · Rapid Vienna 1.22), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Salzburg vs Rapid Vienna?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.