Football · Austria Bundesliga · 30/08, 19:00

Prediction: FC Salzburg vs FK Austria Vienna

Team pages: FC Salzburg · FK Austria Vienna

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.87Total

FC Salzburg1.97

FK Austria Vienna0.9

1X2

62% 22% 16%

FC Salzburg Draw FK Austria Vienna

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Salzburg 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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FK Austria Vienna 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Salzburg 5–1 FK Austria Vienna (6 last)

FC Salzburg3-1FK Austria Vienna
FK Austria Vienna1-3FC Salzburg
FC Salzburg0-2FK Austria Vienna
FK Austria Vienna0-3FC Salzburg
FC Salzburg2-0FK Austria Vienna
FK Austria Vienna1-3FC Salzburg

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Salzburg 1544 · FK Austria Vienna 1526

	FC Salzburg	Draw	FK Austria Vienna
Our model	62%	23%	15%
Market	62%	22%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 2.87 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Salzburg: 5-0-1.
High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Salzburg	FK Austria Vienna
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.3	0.9 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.4 / 7.2	1.8 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	3.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.48

X4.20

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.77

2 (+1)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.48	Bet365 1.48
X	4.20 → 4.20	Pinn 4.88
2	5.75 → 5.75	Pinn 7.02 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.8% Pinnacle margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:30 +2’	1.48	4.20	5.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:31 +1’	1.41	4.88	7.02

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Salzburg 5–0–1 FK Austria Vienna

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/04/26 Austria Bundesliga	FC Salzburg	3-1 HT 2-1	FK Austria Vienna
19/04/26 Austria Bundesliga	FK Austria Vienna	1-3 HT 0-2	FC Salzburg
06/02/26 Austria Bundesliga	FC Salzburg	0-2 HT 0-2	FK Austria Vienna
26/10/25 Austria Bundesliga	FK Austria Vienna	0-3 HT 0-2	FC Salzburg
04/05/25 Austria Bundesliga	FC Salzburg	2-0 HT 0-0	FK Austria Vienna
20/04/25 Austria Bundesliga	FK Austria Vienna	1-3 HT 1-2	FC Salzburg

Standings · Austria Bundesliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Rapid Vienna	3	3	0	0	11	1	9
2	LASK Linz	3	3	0	0	9	1	9
3	SK Sturm Graz	4	2	2	0	5	2	8
4	FC Salzburg	3	2	1	0	5	1	7
5	Austria Lustenau	4	1	2	1	5	5	5
6	Wolfsberger AC	3	1	1	1	5	3	4
7	SV Ried	4	1	1	2	4	7	4
8	FK Austria Vienna	3	1	0	2	2	5	3
9	Hartberg	4	1	0	3	2	6	3
10	Grazer AK	4	1	0	3	2	13	3
11	SCR Altach	4	1	0	3	4	5	3
12	WSG Swarovski Tirol	3	0	1	2	2	7	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Salzburg	FK Austria Vienna
Wolfsberger AC	1-1 D	0-3 L
Hartberg	1-0 W	2-0 W
LASK Linz	1-2 L	0-2 L
SK Sturm Graz	1-1 D	1-1 D
Rapid Vienna	0-1 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Salzburg

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	WSG Swarovski Tirol Austria Bundesliga	2-0	3-0	7	3	W
09/08	Wolfsberger AC Austria Bundesliga	0-0	1-1	8	6	D
01/08	Hartberg Austria Bundesliga	0-0	1-0	19	0	W
17/05	Hartberg Austria Bundesliga	0-2	1-3	13	2	L
10/05	LASK Linz Austria Bundesliga	0-2	1-2	5	2	L
03/05	SK Sturm Graz Austria Bundesliga	1-0	1-1	4	2	D
26/04	Rapid Vienna Austria Bundesliga	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
22/04	FK Austria Vienna Austria Bundesliga	2-1	3-1	5	5	W
19/04	FK Austria Vienna Austria Bundesliga	2-0	3-1	1	6	W
10/04	LASK Linz Austria Bundesliga	1-1	2-3	4	1	L

FK Austria Vienna

DLLDWWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Hartberg Austria Bundesliga	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
09/08	LASK Linz Austria Bundesliga	0-0	0-2	1	5	L
02/08	Wolfsberger AC Austria Bundesliga	0-1	0-3	3	3	L
17/05	LASK Linz Austria Bundesliga	0-1	0-3	8	2	L
10/05	Rapid Vienna Austria Bundesliga	1-0	2-0	5	2	W
03/05	Hartberg Austria Bundesliga	0-0	1-0	6	1	W
26/04	SK Sturm Graz Austria Bundesliga	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
22/04	FC Salzburg Austria Bundesliga	1-2	1-3	0	5	L
19/04	FC Salzburg Austria Bundesliga	0-2	1-3	6	6	L
12/04	Rapid Vienna Austria Bundesliga	1-0	1-1	6	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Salzburg vs FK Austria Vienna?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Salzburg win (62%). Probabilities: FC Salzburg 62%, draw 22%, FK Austria Vienna 16%.

How many goals are expected in FC Salzburg vs FK Austria Vienna?

The model expects 2.87 goals (FC Salzburg 1.97 · FK Austria Vienna 0.9), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Salzburg vs FK Austria Vienna?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.