Football · Uruguay Clausura · 22/08, 00:00

Prediction: Liverpool Montevideo vs Cerro

Team pages: Liverpool Montevideo · Cerro

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.21Total

Liverpool Montevideo1.47

Cerro0.74

1X2

54% 28% 18%

Liverpool Montevideo Draw Cerro

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 62% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Liverpool Montevideo 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLLDWDLWDW

Cerro 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Liverpool Montevideo 2–2–2 Cerro (6 last)

Liverpool Montevideo1-2Cerro
Cerro1-1Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro2-1Liverpool Montevideo
Liverpool Montevideo0-0Cerro
Liverpool Montevideo2-1Cerro
Cerro1-3Liverpool Montevideo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Liverpool Montevideo 1505 · Cerro 1497

	Liverpool Montevideo	Draw	Cerro
Our model	53%	29%	18%
Market	55%	26%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 2.21 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Liverpool Montevideo	Cerro
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.9 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.7	1.1 / 2.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6 / 0.5	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.40

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.93

2 (+0.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.02

Under 2.251.77

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 1.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
06:56 +2’	1.65	3.40	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Liverpool Montevideo 2–2–2 Cerro

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/07/26 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	Liverpool Montevideo	1-2 HT 1-1	Cerro
20/02/26 Uruguay Apertura	Cerro	1-1 HT 0-0	Liverpool Montevideo
24/08/25 Uruguay Clausura	Cerro	2-1 HT 1-1	Liverpool Montevideo
25/05/25 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	Liverpool Montevideo	0-0 HT 0-0	Cerro
22/02/25 Uruguay Apertura	Liverpool Montevideo	2-1 HT 0-0	Cerro
30/11/24 Uruguay Clausura	Cerro	1-3 HT 0-0	Liverpool Montevideo

Standings · Uruguay Clausura · Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Penarol	7	5	1	1	12	3	16
2	Cerro Largo	7	3	2	2	7	5	11
3	Racing Club de Montevideo	7	2	4	1	4	3	10
4	Liverpool Montevideo	7	2	3	2	5	5	9
5	Central Espanol	7	2	3	2	4	4	9
6	Cerro	7	3	0	4	6	10	9
7	Defensor Sporting	7	1	3	3	6	9	6
8	Boston River	7	1	2	4	5	10	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Liverpool Montevideo	Cerro
Albion FC	1-0 W	2-1 W
Central Espanol	0-0 D	1-0 W
Defensor Sporting	2-1 W	1-2 L
Cerro Largo	0-0 D	0-2 L
Boston River	1-0 W	1-4 L
Racing Club de Montevideo	0-0 D	1-0 W
Penarol	1-2 L	0-1 L
Danubio	3-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 3 D 1 L	4 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Liverpool Montevideo (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Liverpool Montevideo

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Albion FC Uruguay Clausura	0-0	1-0	7	7	W
02/08	Central Espanol Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	0-0	0-0	8	11	D
25/07	Defensor Sporting Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	2-1	2-1	8	4	W
12/07	Cerro Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	1-1	1-2	4	6	L
09/06	Cerro Largo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
01/06	Boston River Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	1-0	1-0	5	10	W
23/05	Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	0-0	0-0	3	9	D
16/05	Penarol Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	1-2	1-2	2	7	L
09/05	Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Apertura	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
02/05	Danubio Uruguay Apertura	0-0	3-0	1	2	W

Cerro

LLWLLWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Albion FC Uruguay Clausura	1-1	2-1	1	0	W
09/08	Danubio Uruguay Clausura	1-0	1-0	0	4	W
04/08	Defensor Sporting Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	1-1	1-2	2	6	L
26/07	Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
12/07	Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	1-1	2-1	2	6	W
07/06	Penarol Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
30/05	Cerro Largo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	0-0	0-2	1	5	L
24/05	Central Espanol Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
16/05	Boston River Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	1-2	1-4	3	5	L
11/05	Nacional De Football Uruguay Apertura	0-2	0-4	2	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Liverpool Montevideo vs Cerro?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Liverpool Montevideo win (54%). Probabilities: Liverpool Montevideo 54%, draw 28%, Cerro 18%.

How many goals are expected in Liverpool Montevideo vs Cerro?

The model expects 2.21 goals (Liverpool Montevideo 1.47 · Cerro 0.74), with a 54% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Liverpool Montevideo vs Cerro?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.