Football · Paraguay Division Intermedia · 14/08, 15:00

Prediction: River Plate Asuncion vs 24 de Setiembre

Team pages: River Plate Asuncion · 24 de Setiembre

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.46Total

River Plate Asuncion1.44

24 de Setiembre1.02

1X2

46% 29% 26%

River Plate Asuncion Draw 24 de Setiembre

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

River Plate Asuncion 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

WWDDWDDLDL

24 de Setiembre 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

WLDLDDWDWD

Head-to-head

River Plate Asuncion 0–2–1 24 de Setiembre (3 last)

24 de Setiembre1-1River Plate Asuncion
24 de Setiembre3-3River Plate Asuncion
River Plate Asuncion1-224 de Setiembre

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · River Plate Asuncion 1513 · 24 de Setiembre 1512

	River Plate Asuncion	Draw	24 de Setiembre
Our model	45%	29%	26%
Market	46%	28%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.46 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 11.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	River Plate Asuncion	24 de Setiembre
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.6	2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.1	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	33/44/22%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.3	2.1 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0	5.8 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.25

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 12:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 1.80▼	Bet365 1.80
X	3.25 → 3.40▲	Bet365 3.40
2	3.50 → 4.20▲	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8.8% Pinnacle margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
09:01 +9’	2.00	3.25	3.50
12:17 +5’	1.80▼	3.40▲	4.20▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:21 +1’	1.77	3.27	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · River Plate Asuncion 0–2–1 24 de Setiembre

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Paraguay Tercera Division	24 de Setiembre	1-1 HT 0-0	River Plate Asuncion
18/08/24 Paraguay Tercera Division	24 de Setiembre	3-3 HT 2-1	River Plate Asuncion
02/05/24 Paraguay Cup	River Plate Asuncion	1-2 HT 0-2	24 de Setiembre

Standings · Paraguay Division Intermedia

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	12 de Junio de Villa Hayes	18	11	4	3	26	16	37
2	General Caballero JLM	18	11	3	4	37	23	36
3	Club Dr Benjamin Aceval	18	10	5	3	29	17	35
4	Deportivo Santaní	18	10	3	5	27	16	33
5	Sol de America	18	6	10	2	24	16	28
6	Resistencia FC	18	6	7	5	21	22	25
7	Carapegua	18	7	4	7	22	29	25
8	Club Atlético Tembetary	18	6	5	7	25	25	23
9	Independiente FBC	18	5	8	5	26	25	23
10	Guairena FC	18	6	5	7	18	21	23
11	Deportivo Capiata	18	5	8	5	24	25	23
12	Fernando de la Mora	18	5	5	8	19	27	20
13	Paraguari AC	18	5	4	9	18	23	19
14	Tacuary	18	3	9	6	22	27	18
15	Encarnacion FC	18	3	3	12	15	25	12
16	3 de Noviembre	18	0	7	11	14	30	7

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	River Plate Asuncion	24 de Setiembre
Cristobal Colon JAS	0-0 D	1-1 D
Presidente Hayes	1-0 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: 24 de Setiembre (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

River Plate Asuncion

WWDDWDDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	Atlantida SC Paraguay Primera B	0-0	0-1	0	8	L
02/08	Club Olimpia de Ita Paraguay Primera B	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
29/07	Sol de America Paraguay Cup	0-1	0-2	6	7	L
24/07	Club General Martin Ledesma Paraguay Tercera Division	1-0	1-1	3	5	D
18/07	Sportivo Iteno Paraguay Tercera Division	0-0	1-1	5	6	D
11/07	CS Limpeno Paraguay Tercera Division	2-0	3-0	3	3	W
08/07	Cristobal Colon JAS Paraguay Tercera Division	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
05/07	Silvio Pettirossi Paraguay Tercera Division	0-0	1-1	6	7	D
10/06	Silvio Pettirossi Paraguay Cup	2-0	5-0	6	3	W
06/06	Presidente Hayes Paraguay Tercera Division	0-0	1-0	4	7	W

24 de Setiembre

WLDLDDWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Cristobal Colon JAS Paraguay Primera B	0-0	1-1	6	5	D
01/08	Presidente Hayes Paraguay Primera B	1-0	3-0	5	5	W
25/07	3 de Febrero FBC Paraguay Tercera Division	1-1	2-2	8	5	D
19/07	Club 1 de Marzo Fdm Paraguay Tercera Division	–	3-2	–	–	W
16/07	Fulgencio Yegros Paraguay Cup	0-1	2-2	3	4	D
12/07	Atletico Colegiales Paraguay Tercera Division	1-1	1-1	5	11	D
08/07	29 de Septiembre FBC Paraguay Tercera Division	0-2	2-3	3	6	L
05/07	12 De Octubre San Domingo Paraguay Tercera Division	1-0	2-2	2	6	D
27/06	Club Sport Colombia Paraguay Tercera Division	0-0	0-2	3	7	L
09/06	12 De Octubre San Domingo Paraguay Cup	2-0	4-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in River Plate Asuncion vs 24 de Setiembre?

According to our model, the most likely result is a River Plate Asuncion win (46%). Probabilities: River Plate Asuncion 46%, draw 29%, 24 de Setiembre 26%.

How many goals are expected in River Plate Asuncion vs 24 de Setiembre?

The model expects 2.46 goals (River Plate Asuncion 1.44 · 24 de Setiembre 1.02), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in River Plate Asuncion vs 24 de Setiembre?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.