Football · Panama LPF · 16/08, 03:30

Prediction: UMECIT vs Sporting San Miguelito

Team pages: UMECIT · Sporting San Miguelito

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.53Total

UMECIT1.38

Sporting San Miguelito1.15

1X2

40% 31% 29%

UMECIT Draw Sporting San Miguelito

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

UMECIT 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

WDDLDLDLDL

Sporting San Miguelito 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLLDLWLDLD

Head-to-head

UMECIT 1–5–0 Sporting San Miguelito (6 last)

Sporting San Miguelito2-2UMECIT
UMECIT2-2Sporting San Miguelito
UMECIT3-3Sporting San Miguelito
Sporting San Miguelito0-1UMECIT
UMECIT0-0Sporting San Miguelito
Sporting San Miguelito1-1UMECIT

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UMECIT 1477 · Sporting San Miguelito 1444

	UMECIT	Draw	Sporting San Miguelito
Our model	41%	29%	30%
Market	40%	32%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.53 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	UMECIT	Sporting San Miguelito
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.4	0.8 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.3	2.8 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.2	4.3 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

12.25

X2.80

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 21.90

Under 21.90

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 15:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 2.25▲	Pinn 2.42 ★
X	3.10 → 2.80▼	Bet365 2.80
2	4.00 → 3.10▼	Pinn 3.17

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 12.4% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
08:11 +4’	1.80	3.10	4.00
10:22 +19’	2.10▲	3.00▼	3.25▼
15:03 +5’	2.25▲	2.80▼	3.10▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:08	2.40	2.79	3.15
17:53 +16’	2.42▲	2.76▼	3.17▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · UMECIT 1–5–0 Sporting San Miguelito

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/04/26 Panama LPF	Sporting San Miguelito	2-2 HT 1-0	UMECIT
07/02/26 Panama LPF	UMECIT	2-2 HT 1-1	Sporting San Miguelito
14/10/25 Panama LPF	UMECIT	3-3 HT 1-2	Sporting San Miguelito
22/07/25 Panama LPF	Sporting San Miguelito	0-1 HT 0-0	UMECIT
31/03/25 Panama LPF	UMECIT	0-0 HT 0-0	Sporting San Miguelito
25/08/24 Panama LPF	Sporting San Miguelito	1-1 HT 1-0	UMECIT

Standings · Panama LPF · Apertura, East

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Plaza Amador	3	2	1	0	7	4	7
2	Alianza FC Panama	3	1	2	0	1	0	5
3	UMECIT	3	0	3	0	1	1	3
4	Tauro FC	3	0	2	1	3	4	2
5	CD Arabe Unido	3	0	2	1	2	3	2
6	Sporting San Miguelito	3	0	2	1	0	2	2

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	UMECIT	Sporting San Miguelito
Alianza FC Panama	0-1 L	0-0 D
CD Arabe Unido	0-0 D	0-1 L
Tauro FC	1-1 D	0-0 D
Plaza Amador	0-3 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 2 L	0 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Sporting San Miguelito (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

UMECIT

WDDLDLDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	Alianza FC Panama CONCACAF Central American Cup	0-1	0-1	5	1	L
09/08	CD Arabe Unido Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	2	8	D
06/08	CD Olimpia CONCACAF Central American Cup	1-1	1-2	2	4	L
02/08	Tauro FC Panama LPF	1-0	1-1	7	9	D
30/07	Deportivo Saprissa CONCACAF Central American Cup	0-1	1-2	8	5	L
26/07	Alianza FC Panama Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	2	1	D
16/05	Plaza Amador Panama LPF	0-1	0-3	1	9	L
10/05	Plaza Amador Panama LPF	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
06/05	Union Cocle Panama LPF	0-0	1-1	7	4	D
03/05	Tauro FC Panama LPF	2-2	5-2	5	5	W

Sporting San Miguelito

LLLDLWLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/08	Alianza FC Panama Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
02/08	Plaza Amador Panama LPF	0-1	0-2	3	0	L
28/07	Tauro FC Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
03/05	Alianza FC Panama Panama LPF	1-1	2-3	1	0	L
26/04	Tauro FC Panama LPF	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
20/04	Plaza Amador Panama LPF	0-2	0-3	5	7	L
14/04	UMECIT Panama LPF	1-0	2-2	2	12	D
06/04	CD Arabe Unido Panama LPF	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
30/03	San Francisco FC Panama LPF	0-1	0-1	10	4	L
23/03	Veraguas CD Panama LPF	2-0	2-3	7	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UMECIT vs Sporting San Miguelito?

According to our model, the most likely result is a UMECIT win (40%). Probabilities: UMECIT 40%, draw 31%, Sporting San Miguelito 29%.

How many goals are expected in UMECIT vs Sporting San Miguelito?

The model expects 2.53 goals (UMECIT 1.38 · Sporting San Miguelito 1.15), with a 56% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in UMECIT vs Sporting San Miguelito?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.