Football · Panama LPF · 23/08, 01:15

Prediction: CA Independiente de la Chorrera vs Union Cocle

Team pages: CA Independiente de la Chorrera · Union Cocle

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.94Total

CA Independiente de la Chorrera1.15

Union Cocle0.78

1X2

43% 33% 24%

CA Independiente de la Chorrera Draw Union Cocle

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 59% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

0-0

Recent form · 10 last

CA Independiente de la Chorrera 1-7-2 (W-D-L)

DDDWLDDDDL

Union Cocle 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DLWDWDLWLD

Head-to-head

CA Independiente de la Chorrera 0–2–0 Union Cocle (2 last)

Union Cocle0-0CA Independiente de la Chorrera
CA Independiente de la Chorrera0-0Union Cocle

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CA Independiente de la Chorrera 1487 · Union Cocle 1497

	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	Draw	Union Cocle
Our model	43%	33%	24%
Market	44%	32%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 1.94 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 10.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	Union Cocle
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.2	1 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.5	2.6 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.2	5.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.05

X2.80

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.77

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 21.80

Under 22.00

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 23:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.05▼	Pinn 2.18 ★
X	3.00 → 2.80▼	Bet365 2.80
2	3.20 → 3.70▲	Bet365 3.70

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
20:29 +9’	2.10	3.00	3.20
05:41 +13’	2.00▼	3.00	3.40▲
23:10 +1’	2.05▲	2.80▼	3.70▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:18 +2’	2.01	3.11	3.67
07:41	2.07▲	3.09▼	3.51▼
17:17 +17’	2.14▲	2.88▼	3.61▲
18:45 +21’	2.18▲	2.78▼	3.66▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CA Independiente de la Chorrera 0–2–0 Union Cocle

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/04/26 Panama LPF	Union Cocle	0-0 HT 0-0	CA Independiente de la Chorrera
01/02/26 Panama LPF	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	0-0 HT 0-0	Union Cocle

Standings · Panama LPF · Apertura, West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	San Francisco FC	4	3	0	1	8	5	9
2	Veraguas CD	4	2	2	0	6	4	8
3	Herrera FC	4	1	2	1	4	5	5
4	Union Cocle	4	1	1	2	3	4	4
5	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	4	0	3	1	4	5	3
6	CD Universitario	4	0	2	2	5	7	2

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	Union Cocle
San Francisco FC	1-2 L	2-1 W
CD Universitario	2-2 D	1-1 D
Herrera FC	0-0 D	0-1 L
Veraguas CD	1-1 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: CA Independiente de la Chorrera (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CA Independiente de la Chorrera

DDDWLDDDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	San Francisco FC Panama LPF	1-1	1-2	2	4	L
11/08	CD Universitario Panama LPF	0-2	2-2	2	6	D
04/08	Herrera FC Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
27/07	Veraguas CD Panama LPF	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
06/05	Alianza FC Panama Panama LPF	0-1	2-2	10	5	D
02/05	Veraguas CD Panama LPF	0-1	0-1	7	6	L
26/04	CD Universitario Panama LPF	1-0	3-2	4	6	W
21/04	Herrera FC Panama LPF	1-0	2-2	6	3	D
12/04	San Francisco FC Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	0	9	D
05/04	Union Cocle Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	4	4	D

Union Cocle

DLWDWDLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	CD Universitario Panama LPF	0-0	1-1	2	7	D
09/08	Veraguas CD Panama LPF	0-0	0-1	8	5	L
02/08	San Francisco FC Panama LPF	2-1	2-1	2	3	W
26/07	Herrera FC Panama LPF	0-1	0-1	2	10	L
06/05	UMECIT Panama LPF	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
02/05	Herrera FC Panama LPF	2-0	4-0	6	7	W
26/04	Veraguas CD Panama LPF	0-1	1-1	6	7	D
19/04	San Francisco FC Panama LPF	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
13/04	CD Universitario Panama LPF	0-1	0-2	7	9	L
05/04	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	7	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CA Independiente de la Chorrera vs Union Cocle?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CA Independiente de la Chorrera win (43%). Probabilities: CA Independiente de la Chorrera 43%, draw 33%, Union Cocle 24%.

How many goals are expected in CA Independiente de la Chorrera vs Union Cocle?

The model expects 1.94 goals (CA Independiente de la Chorrera 1.15 · Union Cocle 0.78), with a 52% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in CA Independiente de la Chorrera vs Union Cocle?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.