Football · Panama LPF · 24/08, 01:15

Prediction: Plaza Amador vs UMECIT

Team pages: Plaza Amador · UMECIT

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.95Total

Plaza Amador1.94

UMECIT1.01

1X2

58% 24% 18%

Plaza Amador Draw UMECIT

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Plaza Amador 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DWDDLWWWWW

UMECIT 0-4-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Plaza Amador 3–2–1 UMECIT (6 last)

Plaza Amador3-0UMECIT
UMECIT2-2Plaza Amador
Plaza Amador2-2UMECIT
UMECIT1-0Plaza Amador
Plaza Amador1-0UMECIT
UMECIT0-2Plaza Amador

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Plaza Amador 1606 · UMECIT 1442

	Plaza Amador	Draw	UMECIT
Our model	58%	24%	18%
Market	57%	25%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.95 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Plaza Amador (rating 1606 vs 1442).
H2H favours Plaza Amador: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Plaza Amador	UMECIT
Goals for / against (FT)	2.7 / 1.7	0.6 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 1	0.3 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.4	1.3 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.2	5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.55

X3.60

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.00

2 (+1)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 1.05 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 03:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.55▼	Pinn 1.58
X	3.30 → 3.60▲	Pinn 3.80 ★
2	4.10 → 5.00▲	Pinn 5.13

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.3% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:59 +4’	1.73	3.30	4.10
03:46 +2’	1.55▼	3.60▲	5.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:48	1.58	3.80	5.13

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Plaza Amador 3–2–1 UMECIT

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Panama LPF	Plaza Amador	3-0 HT 1-0	UMECIT
10/05/26 Panama LPF	UMECIT	2-2 HT 1-1	Plaza Amador
26/04/26 Panama LPF	Plaza Amador	2-2 HT 0-0	UMECIT
27/01/26 Panama LPF	UMECIT	1-0 HT 0-0	Plaza Amador
02/11/25 Panama LPF	Plaza Amador	1-0 HT 0-0	UMECIT
05/08/25 Panama LPF	UMECIT	0-2 HT 0-0	Plaza Amador

Standings · Panama LPF · Apertura, East

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Plaza Amador	4	3	1	0	11	6	10
2	CD Arabe Unido	5	2	2	1	4	3	8
3	Alianza FC Panama	4	1	2	1	3	4	5
4	Sporting San Miguelito	5	1	2	2	1	3	5
5	UMECIT	4	0	3	1	1	2	3
6	Tauro FC	4	0	2	2	3	5	2

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Plaza Amador	UMECIT
Alianza FC Panama	4-2 W	0-1 L
Tauro FC	3-2 W	1-1 D
Sporting San Miguelito	2-0 W	0-1 L
CD Arabe Unido	2-2 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Plaza Amador (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Plaza Amador

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/08	Alianza FC Panama Panama LPF	3-1	4-2	7	6	W
12/08	Xelaju CONCACAF Central American Cup	2-1	5-2	6	5	W
09/08	Tauro FC Panama LPF	2-1	3-2	2	6	W
05/08	CD Luis Angel Firpo CONCACAF Central American Cup	1-0	2-1	8	4	W
02/08	Sporting San Miguelito Panama LPF	1-0	2-0	3	0	W
29/07	Diriangen CONCACAF Central American Cup	0-3	2-4	13	5	L
25/07	CD Arabe Unido Panama LPF	0-2	2-2	0	6	D
24/05	Alianza FC Panama Panama LPF	1-1	2-2	9	6	D
16/05	UMECIT Panama LPF	1-0	3-0	1	9	W
10/05	UMECIT Panama LPF	1-1	2-2	–	–	D

UMECIT

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/08	Deportivo Mixco CONCACAF Central American Cup	0-4	1-4	4	4	L
16/08	Sporting San Miguelito Panama LPF	0-0	0-1	3	6	L
14/08	Alianza FC Panama CONCACAF Central American Cup	0-1	0-1	5	1	L
09/08	CD Arabe Unido Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	2	8	D
06/08	CD Olimpia CONCACAF Central American Cup	1-1	1-2	2	4	L
02/08	Tauro FC Panama LPF	1-0	1-1	7	9	D
30/07	Deportivo Saprissa CONCACAF Central American Cup	0-1	1-2	8	5	L
26/07	Alianza FC Panama Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	2	1	D
16/05	Plaza Amador Panama LPF	0-1	0-3	1	9	L
10/05	Plaza Amador Panama LPF	1-1	2-2	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Plaza Amador vs UMECIT?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Plaza Amador win (58%). Probabilities: Plaza Amador 58%, draw 24%, UMECIT 18%.

How many goals are expected in Plaza Amador vs UMECIT?

The model expects 2.95 goals (Plaza Amador 1.94 · UMECIT 1.01), with a 57% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Plaza Amador vs UMECIT?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.