Football · Azerbaijan Premier League · 15/08, 18:45
Prediction: Sabah vs FK Kapaz
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Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.94Total
Sabah2.29
FK Kapaz0.65
1X2
Sabah
Draw
FK Kapaz
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Sabah
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
FK Kapaz
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sabah
2–1–3
FK Kapaz
(6 last)
- Sabah0-1FK Kapaz
- Sabah1-0FK Kapaz
- FK Kapaz1-3Sabah
- Sabah0-1FK Kapaz
- FK Kapaz3-2Sabah
- Sabah2-2FK Kapaz
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sabah 1599 · FK Kapaz 1441
| Sabah | Draw | FK Kapaz | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 74% | 18% | 8% |
| Market | 75% | 16% | 9% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.94 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sabah (rating 1599 vs 1441).
- H2H favours FK Kapaz: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sabah | FK Kapaz | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1 | 0.6 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.5 | 0.1 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.5 / 6.1 | 1.7 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.8 / 0.1 | 4.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sabah 2–1–3 FK Kapaz
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/05/26 Azerbaijan Premier League | Sabah | 0-1 HT 0-0 | FK Kapaz |
| 22/02/26 Azerbaijan Premier League | Sabah | 1-0 HT 0-0 | FK Kapaz |
| 09/11/25 Azerbaijan Premier League | FK Kapaz | 1-3 HT 1-2 | Sabah |
| 06/04/25 Azerbaijan Premier League | Sabah | 0-1 HT 0-1 | FK Kapaz |
| 31/01/25 Azerbaijan Premier League | FK Kapaz | 3-2 HT 1-2 | Sabah |
| 09/11/24 Azerbaijan Premier League | Sabah | 2-2 HT 1-1 | FK Kapaz |
Standings · Azerbaijan Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PFK Turan Tovuz | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Araz FK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | FK Kapaz | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Imisli | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Neftchi Baku | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | FK Qarabag | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Sabah | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Safa Baku | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Shamakhi FK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | FK Sumqayit | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Zira IK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | FK Gabala | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sabah
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08 | AGF Aarhus UEFA Champions League Qualifying |
0-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 05/08 | AGF Aarhus UEFA Champions League Qualifying |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 28/07 | KuPS Kuopio UEFA Champions League Qualifying |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 21/07 | KuPS Kuopio UEFA Champions League Qualifying |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 14/07 | T.N.S. UEFA Champions League Qualifying |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 07/07 | T.N.S. UEFA Champions League Qualifying |
0-0 | 2-0 | 11 | 6 | W |
| 02/07 | Polissya Zhytomyr Europe Friendlies |
0-2 | 1-4 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 28/06 | Ferencvarosi TC Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 24/06 | CS U Craiova Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 0 | D |
| 22/05 | PFK Turan Tovuz Azerbaijan Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
FK Kapaz
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05 | Neftchi Baku Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 15/05 | Araz FK Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 08/05 | Sabah Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | FK Sumqayit Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 26/04 | Shamakhi FK Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 19/04 | Imisli Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 10/04 | FK Karvan Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-2 | 1-4 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 05/04 | FK Gabala Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 20/03 | FK Qarabag Azerbaijan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 15/03 | PFK Turan Tovuz Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sabah vs FK Kapaz?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Sabah win (74%). Probabilities: Sabah 74%, draw 17%, FK Kapaz 9%.
How many goals are expected in Sabah vs FK Kapaz?
The model expects 2.94 goals (Sabah 2.29 · FK Kapaz 0.65), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Sabah vs FK Kapaz?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.