Football · Azerbaijan Premier League · 17/08, 17:30
Prediction: FK Qarabag vs Shamakhi FK
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.65Total
FK Qarabag1.75
Shamakhi FK0.9
1X2
FK Qarabag
Draw
Shamakhi FK
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
FK Qarabag
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Shamakhi FK
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FK Qarabag
3–2–1
Shamakhi FK
(6 last)
- Shamakhi FK0-0FK Qarabag
- FK Qarabag3-1Shamakhi FK
- Shamakhi FK1-2FK Qarabag
- Shamakhi FK2-1FK Qarabag
- FK Qarabag0-0Shamakhi FK
- Shamakhi FK0-1FK Qarabag
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FK Qarabag 1545 · Shamakhi FK 1460
| FK Qarabag | Draw | Shamakhi FK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 26% | 18% |
| Market | 59% | 21% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.65 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Qarabag (rating 1545 vs 1460).
- H2H favours FK Qarabag: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FK Qarabag | Shamakhi FK | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.1 | 0.8 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.5 | 0.3 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.9 / 7.6 | 1.8 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.6 / 0.1 | 4.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Qarabag 3–2–1 Shamakhi FK
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 Azerbaijan Premier League | Shamakhi FK | 0-0 HT 0-0 | FK Qarabag |
| 04/03/26 Azerbaijan Cup | FK Qarabag | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Shamakhi FK |
| 10/02/26 Azerbaijan Premier League | Shamakhi FK | 1-2 HT 1-1 | FK Qarabag |
| 05/02/26 Azerbaijan Cup | Shamakhi FK | 2-1 HT 2-0 | FK Qarabag |
| 26/10/25 Azerbaijan Premier League | FK Qarabag | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Shamakhi FK |
| 24/05/25 Azerbaijan Premier League | Shamakhi FK | 0-1 HT 0-0 | FK Qarabag |
Standings · Azerbaijan Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabah | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | PFK Turan Tovuz | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Araz FK | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | Imisli | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 5 | Neftchi Baku | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | FK Qarabag | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Safa Baku | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Shamakhi FK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | FK Sumqayit | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Zira IK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | FK Gabala | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 12 | FK Kapaz | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FK Qarabag
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08 | Dynamo Kiev UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 06/08 | Dynamo Kiev UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-1 | 0-1 | 11 | 6 | L |
| 30/07 | CSKA Sofia UEFA Europa League Qualifying |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 9 | D |
| 23/07 | CSKA Sofia UEFA Europa League Qualifying |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 16/07 | IF Vestri UEFA Europa League Qualifying |
2-0 | 3-0 | 13 | 0 | W |
| 09/07 | IF Vestri UEFA Europa League Qualifying |
2-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 01/07 | Ferencvarosi TC Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 0 | L |
| 01/07 | FC Kharkiv Europe Friendlies |
0-3 | 2-6 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 27/06 | WSG Swarovski Tirol Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 22/05 | FK Sumqayit Azerbaijan Premier League |
2-0 | 4-3 | 1 | 4 | W |
Shamakhi FK
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/05 | FK Gabala Azerbaijan Premier League |
1-3 | 1-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | PFK Turan Tovuz Azerbaijan Premier League |
2-0 | 3-2 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 10/05 | Neftchi Baku Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 03/05 | Sabah Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 26/04 | FK Kapaz Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 18/04 | FK Karvan Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 11/04 | FK Qarabag Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 07/04 | Zira IK Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 5 | D |
| 18/03 | Araz FK Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 13/03 | FK Sumqayit Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FK Qarabag vs Shamakhi FK?
According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Qarabag win (58%). Probabilities: FK Qarabag 58%, draw 23%, Shamakhi FK 19%.
How many goals are expected in FK Qarabag vs Shamakhi FK?
The model expects 2.65 goals (FK Qarabag 1.75 · Shamakhi FK 0.9), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in FK Qarabag vs Shamakhi FK?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.