Prediction: Neftchi Baku vs Araz FK
Team pages: Neftchi Baku · Araz FK
- Neftchi Baku2-1Araz FK
- Araz FK0-4Neftchi Baku
- Neftchi Baku2-2Araz FK
- Neftchi Baku1-1Araz FK
- Araz FK2-1Neftchi Baku
- Neftchi Baku0-1Araz FK
| Neftchi Baku | Draw | Araz FK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 22% | 16% |
| Market | 61% | 24% | 16% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Neftchi Baku (rating 1564 vs 1462).
- Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Neftchi Baku | Araz FK | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 1.1 | 1.1 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 4.8 | 1.5 / 3.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.3 | 3.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Neftchi Baku 2–2–2 Araz FK
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 Azerbaijan Premier League | Neftchi Baku | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Araz FK |
| 01/02/26 Azerbaijan Premier League | Araz FK | 0-4 HT 0-2 | Neftchi Baku |
| 19/10/25 Azerbaijan Premier League | Neftchi Baku | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Araz FK |
| 29/03/25 Azerbaijan Premier League | Neftchi Baku | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Araz FK |
| 26/01/25 Azerbaijan Premier League | Araz FK | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Neftchi Baku |
| 01/11/24 Azerbaijan Premier League | Neftchi Baku | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Araz FK |
Standings · Azerbaijan Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi Baku | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 1 | FK Qarabag | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Sabah | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Zira IK | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | PFK Turan Tovuz | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Araz FK | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Imisli | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | FK Gabala | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 9 | Shamakhi FK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 9 | FK Sumqayit | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 11 | FK Kapaz | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 11 | Safa Baku | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Neftchi Baku | Araz FK |
|---|---|---|
| FK Sumqayit | 3-1 W | 1-2 L |
| FK Kapaz | 1-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Sabah | 2-1 W | 2-4 L |
| Shamakhi FK | 3-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Zira IK | 1-1 D | 3-2 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 0 L | 3 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Neftchi Baku (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Neftchi Baku
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | FK Sumqayit Azerbaijan Premier League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 23/05 | FK Kapaz Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 17/05 | Sabah Azerbaijan Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 10/05 | Shamakhi FK Azerbaijan Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 05/05 | FK Karvan Azerbaijan Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 30/04 | FK Qarabag Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 0 | 8 | W |
| 26/04 | FK Qarabag Azerbaijan Premier League |
1-3 | 1-5 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 17/04 | Zira IK Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 7 | D |
| 11/04 | Araz FK Azerbaijan Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 05/04 | FK Sumqayit Azerbaijan Premier League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
Araz FK
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Imisli Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 23/05 | Zira IK Azerbaijan Premier League |
2-0 | 3-2 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 15/05 | FK Kapaz Azerbaijan Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 09/05 | FK Sumqayit Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 02/05 | Imisli Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 25/04 | FK Gabala Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 17/04 | PFK Turan Tovuz Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 11/04 | Neftchi Baku Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 07/04 | Sabah Azerbaijan Premier League |
2-2 | 2-4 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 18/03 | Shamakhi FK Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Neftchi Baku vs Araz FK?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Neftchi Baku win (61%). Probabilities: Neftchi Baku 61%, draw 23%, Araz FK 16%.
How many goals are expected in Neftchi Baku vs Araz FK?
The model expects 3.12 goals (Neftchi Baku 2.1 · Araz FK 1.01), with a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Neftchi Baku vs Araz FK?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.