Football · Azerbaijan Premier League · 16/08, 19:00
Prediction: Zira IK vs Safa Baku
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.31Total
Zira IK1.57
Safa Baku0.75
1X2
Zira IK
Draw
Safa Baku
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 56%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Zira IK
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Safa Baku
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Zira IK 1522 · Safa Baku 1532
| Zira IK | Draw | Safa Baku | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 28% | 17% |
| Market | 57% | 25% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.31 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Zira IK | Safa Baku | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 0.9 | 1.2 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.4 | 0.3 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5.7 | 2.7 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0 | 4.1 / 0.3 |
Standings · Azerbaijan Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PFK Turan Tovuz | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Araz FK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | FK Kapaz | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Imisli | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Neftchi Baku | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | FK Qarabag | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Sabah | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Safa Baku | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Shamakhi FK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | FK Sumqayit | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Zira IK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | FK Gabala | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Zira IK
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07 | Paide Linnameeskond UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
1-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 23/07 | Paide Linnameeskond UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 16/07 | Torpedo Kutaisi UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 08/07 | Torpedo Kutaisi UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
1-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 23/05 | Araz FK Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-2 | 2-3 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 17/05 | FK Sumqayit Azerbaijan Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 11 | 3 | W |
| 13/05 | Sabah Azerbaijan Cup |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 08/05 | Imisli Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 03/05 | FK Gabala Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 27/04 | PFK Turan Tovuz Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
Safa Baku
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/05 | Zaqatala Azerbaijan Division 1 |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 15/05 | Cebrayil FK Azerbaijan Division 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 06/05 | Difai FK Azerbaijan Division 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 29/04 | Simal FK Azerbaijan Division 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 22/04 | Moik Baku Azerbaijan Division 1 |
0-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 16/04 | Baku Sporting FC Azerbaijan Division 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 09/04 | Sabail FC Azerbaijan Division 1 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 03/04 | Energetik Mingechevir Azerbaijan Division 1 |
0-1 | 2-5 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 18/03 | FK Sahdag Qusar Azerbaijan Division 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 11/03 | Simal FK Azerbaijan Division 1 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Zira IK vs Safa Baku?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Zira IK win (57%). Probabilities: Zira IK 57%, draw 26%, Safa Baku 17%.
How many goals are expected in Zira IK vs Safa Baku?
The model expects 2.31 goals (Zira IK 1.57 · Safa Baku 0.75), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Zira IK vs Safa Baku?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.