Football · Italy Campionato Primavera 2 · 24/10, 12:00

Prediction: Ascoli U19 vs Monopoli U19

Team pages: Ascoli U19 · Monopoli U19

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.58Total

Ascoli U191.83

Monopoli U191.75

1X2

39% 24% 36%

Ascoli U19 Draw Monopoli U19

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Ascoli U19 0-2-8 (W-D-L)

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Monopoli U19 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Ascoli U19 3–1–2 Monopoli U19 (6 last)

Ascoli U192-4Monopoli U19
Monopoli U190-0Ascoli U19
Monopoli U191-4Ascoli U19
Ascoli U195-3Monopoli U19
Ascoli U192-0Monopoli U19
Monopoli U191-0Ascoli U19

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ascoli U19 1422 · Monopoli U19 1517

	Ascoli U19	Draw	Monopoli U19
Our model	40%	24%	37%
Market	39%	25%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 3.58 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Monopoli U19 (rating 1422 vs 1517).
H2H favours Ascoli U19: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ascoli U19	Monopoli U19
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.7	1.6 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	11/44/44%	38/25/38%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.1	2 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	3.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.60

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
12:06 +8’	2.30	3.60	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ascoli U19 3–1–2 Monopoli U19

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	Ascoli U19	2-4 HT 1-0	Monopoli U19
04/10/25 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	Monopoli U19	0-0 HT 0-0	Ascoli U19
08/03/25 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	Monopoli U19	1-4 HT 0-3	Ascoli U19
11/01/25 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	Ascoli U19	5-3 HT 2-0	Monopoli U19
13/04/24 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	Ascoli U19	2-0 HT 2-0	Monopoli U19
11/11/23 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	Monopoli U19	1-0	Ascoli U19

Standings · Italy Campionato Primavera 2 · Primavera 2 26/27, Girone B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Catanzaro U19	5	5	0	0	15	3	15
2	Perugia U19	5	4	0	1	13	3	12
3	Palermo U19	5	3	2	0	9	5	11
4	Benevento U19	5	3	1	1	14	5	10
5	Bari U19	5	2	3	0	9	4	9
6	Avellino U19	5	3	0	2	9	6	9
7	Pescara U19	5	2	2	1	14	11	8
8	Monopoli U19	5	2	2	1	10	7	8
9	Latina U19	5	2	1	2	10	7	7
10	Pisa U19	5	2	0	3	9	10	6
11	Napoli U19	5	1	2	2	7	9	5
12	Spezia U19	5	1	1	3	7	11	4
13	Frosinone U19	5	1	1	3	4	13	4
14	Ascoli U19	5	0	2	3	7	14	2
15	Salernitana U19	5	0	1	4	4	20	1
16	Cosenza U19	5	0	0	5	2	15	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ascoli U19	Monopoli U19
Pescara U19	2-5 L	2-2 D
Spezia U19	1-1 D	2-0 W
Perugia U19	2-3 L	0-3 L
Catanzaro U19	2-3 L	0-3 L
Avellino U19	1-2 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 4 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Monopoli U19 (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ascoli U19

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Pisa U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	1-3	1-4	8	4	L
10/10	Pescara U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	1-2	2-5	9	3	L
19/09	Napoli U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	1-1	2-2	4	7	D
12/09	Bari U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	0-0	1-2	4	5	L
05/09	Spezia U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	0-0	1-1	6	7	D
09/05	Empoli U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	0-0	1-2	4	0	L
02/05	Perugia U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	–	2-3	–	–	L
24/04	Pescara U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	0-2	2-3	6	1	L
18/04	Catanzaro U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	1-0	2-3	4	5	L
11/04	Avellino U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	0-1	1-2	1	3	L

Monopoli U19

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Benevento U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	1-2	2-2	3	7	D
10/10	Spezia U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	1-0	2-0	1	6	W
19/09	Pescara U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	2-1	2-2	2	4	D
12/09	Perugia U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	–	0-3	–	–	L
05/09	Cosenza U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	–	4-0	–	–	W
09/05	Cosenza U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
02/05	Catanzaro U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	0-1	0-3	3	2	L
25/04	Avellino U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
18/04	Pescara U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	1-0	4-1	5	1	W
11/04	Palermo U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	0-1	1-1	7	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ascoli U19 vs Monopoli U19?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ascoli U19 win (39%). Probabilities: Ascoli U19 39%, draw 24%, Monopoli U19 36%.

How many goals are expected in Ascoli U19 vs Monopoli U19?

The model expects 3.58 goals (Ascoli U19 1.83 · Monopoli U19 1.75), with a 55% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Ascoli U19 vs Monopoli U19?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.