Football · Azerbaijan Division 1 · 04/09, 15:00
Prediction: Simal FK vs Cebrayil FK
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.86Total
Simal FK1.56
Cebrayil FK1.3
1X2
Simal FK
Draw
Cebrayil FK
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Simal FK
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Cebrayil FK
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Simal FK
2–1
Cebrayil FK
(3 last)
- Cebrayil FK2-3Simal FK
- Simal FK3-2Cebrayil FK
- Cebrayil FK7-0Simal FK
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Simal FK 1469 · Cebrayil FK 1468
| Simal FK | Draw | Cebrayil FK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 27% | 31% |
| Market | 43% | 26% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.86 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Simal FK: 2-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Simal FK | Cebrayil FK | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.5 / 1.4 | 1.2 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.3 | 0.7 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.1 | 2 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0 | 2.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Simal FK 2–0–1 Cebrayil FK
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/05/26 Azerbaijan Division 1 | Cebrayil FK | 2-3 HT 1-0 | Simal FK |
| 24/02/26 Azerbaijan Division 1 | Simal FK | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Cebrayil FK |
| 20/11/25 Azerbaijan Division 1 | Cebrayil FK | 7-0 HT 3-0 | Simal FK |
Standings · Azerbaijan Division 1
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baku Sporting FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Cebrayil FK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Energetik Mingechevir | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | FK Karvan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Khankendi FK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Moik Baku | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sabail FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | FK Sahdag Qusar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Simal FK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Zaqatala | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Simal FK | Cebrayil FK |
|---|---|---|
| Difai FK | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Moik Baku | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Safa Baku | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| Baku Sporting FC | 1-0 W | 2-3 L |
| Sabail FC | 0-4 L | 0-6 L |
| Energetik Mingechevir | 0-3 L | 2-1 W |
| FK Sahdag Qusar | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| Zaqatala | 0-0 D | 3-2 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 3 D 4 L | 2 W 2 D 4 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Simal FK
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/05 | Cebrayil FK Azerbaijan Division 1 |
0-1 | 3-2 | 10 | 0 | W |
| 14/05 | Difai FK Azerbaijan Division 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 06/05 | Moik Baku Azerbaijan Division 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 29/04 | Safa Baku Azerbaijan Division 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 5 | D |
| 23/04 | Baku Sporting FC Azerbaijan Division 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 16/04 | Sabail FC Azerbaijan Division 1 |
0-1 | 0-4 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 09/04 | Energetik Mingechevir Azerbaijan Division 1 |
0-0 | 0-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 03/04 | FK Sahdag Qusar Azerbaijan Division 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 10 | 5 | L |
| 19/03 | Zaqatala Azerbaijan Division 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 11/03 | Safa Baku Azerbaijan Division 1 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
Cebrayil FK
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/05 | Simal FK Azerbaijan Division 1 |
1-0 | 2-3 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 15/05 | Safa Baku Azerbaijan Division 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 07/05 | Baku Sporting FC Azerbaijan Division 1 |
1-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 30/04 | Sabail FC Azerbaijan Division 1 |
0-3 | 0-6 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 22/04 | Energetik Mingechevir Azerbaijan Division 1 |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 15/04 | FK Sahdag Qusar Azerbaijan Division 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 08/04 | Zaqatala Azerbaijan Division 1 |
1-0 | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 02/04 | Moik Baku Azerbaijan Division 1 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 19/03 | Difai FK Azerbaijan Division 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 13/03 | Zaqatala Azerbaijan Division 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Simal FK vs Cebrayil FK?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Simal FK win (42%). Probabilities: Simal FK 42%, draw 27%, Cebrayil FK 31%.
How many goals are expected in Simal FK vs Cebrayil FK?
The model expects 2.86 goals (Simal FK 1.56 · Cebrayil FK 1.3), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Simal FK vs Cebrayil FK?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.