Football · Azerbaijan Division 1 · 03/09, 15:00

Prediction: Moik Baku vs FK Sahdag Qusar

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.18Total

Moik Baku1.16

FK Sahdag Qusar1.02

1X2

39% 30% 32%

Moik Baku Draw FK Sahdag Qusar

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Moik Baku 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DDWLWLLDLW

FK Sahdag Qusar 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DLWWDWWWDD

Head-to-head

Moik Baku 2–2–2 FK Sahdag Qusar (6 last)

Moik Baku0-1FK Sahdag Qusar
FK Sahdag Qusar1-1Moik Baku
Moik Baku1-2FK Sahdag Qusar
FK Sahdag Qusar0-0Moik Baku
Moik Baku6-0FK Sahdag Qusar
Moik Baku9-1FK Sahdag Qusar

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Moik Baku 1479 · FK Sahdag Qusar 1567

	Moik Baku	Draw	FK Sahdag Qusar
Our model	38%	32%	30%
Market	40%	28%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.18 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Sahdag Qusar (rating 1479 vs 1567).
Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Moik Baku	FK Sahdag Qusar
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.6	1 / 0.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.9	0.6 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.7	0.4 / 1.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.1	5.3 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.25

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.77

Under 2.252.02

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
01:06 +2’	2.25	3.25	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Moik Baku 2–2–2 FK Sahdag Qusar

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/04/26 Azerbaijan Division 1	Moik Baku	0-1 HT 0-0	FK Sahdag Qusar
12/03/26 Azerbaijan Division 1	FK Sahdag Qusar	1-1 HT 1-0	Moik Baku
11/09/25 Azerbaijan Division 1	Moik Baku	1-2 HT 0-0	FK Sahdag Qusar
04/03/17 Azerbaijan Division 1	FK Sahdag Qusar	0-0 HT 0-0	Moik Baku
04/10/16 Azerbaijan Division 1	Moik Baku	6-0 HT 3-0	FK Sahdag Qusar
13/05/16 Azerbaijan Division 1	Moik Baku	9-1 HT 3-0	FK Sahdag Qusar

Standings · Azerbaijan Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Baku Sporting FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cebrayil FK	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Energetik Mingechevir	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FK Karvan	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Khankendi FK	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Moik Baku	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sabail FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FK Sahdag Qusar	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Simal FK	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Zaqatala	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Moik Baku	FK Sahdag Qusar
Difai FK	4-0 W	3-0 W
Energetik Mingechevir	1-3 L	2-0 W
Simal FK	1-1 D	1-0 W
Safa Baku	0-3 L	0-1 L
Zaqatala	2-1 W	1-0 W
Baku Sporting FC	1-3 L	1-1 D
Cebrayil FK	2-1 W	0-0 D
Sabail FC	2-2 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	4 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FK Sahdag Qusar (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Moik Baku

DDWLWLLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/05	Difai FK Azerbaijan Division 1	2-0	4-0	8	4	W
15/05	Energetik Mingechevir Azerbaijan Division 1	0-3	1-3	–	–	L
06/05	Simal FK Azerbaijan Division 1	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
29/04	FK Sahdag Qusar Azerbaijan Division 1	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
22/04	Safa Baku Azerbaijan Division 1	0-0	0-3	–	–	L
15/04	Zaqatala Azerbaijan Division 1	2-1	2-1	7	6	W
08/04	Baku Sporting FC Azerbaijan Division 1	0-2	1-3	1	3	L
02/04	Cebrayil FK Azerbaijan Division 1	1-1	2-1	7	1	W
18/03	Sabail FC Azerbaijan Division 1	1-0	2-2	1	9	D
12/03	FK Sahdag Qusar Azerbaijan Division 1	0-1	1-1	4	9	D

FK Sahdag Qusar

DLWWDWWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/05	Baku Sporting FC Azerbaijan Division 1	0-1	1-1	5	3	D
15/05	Sabail FC Azerbaijan Division 1	0-0	0-0	1	7	D
05/05	Energetik Mingechevir Azerbaijan Division 1	1-0	2-0	2	9	W
29/04	Moik Baku Azerbaijan Division 1	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
22/04	Zaqatala Azerbaijan Division 1	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
15/04	Cebrayil FK Azerbaijan Division 1	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
09/04	Difai FK Azerbaijan Division 1	3-0	3-0	2	4	W
03/04	Simal FK Azerbaijan Division 1	1-0	1-0	1	5	W
18/03	Safa Baku Azerbaijan Division 1	0-1	0-1	1	6	L
12/03	Moik Baku Azerbaijan Division 1	1-0	1-1	1	9	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Moik Baku vs FK Sahdag Qusar?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Moik Baku win (39%). Probabilities: Moik Baku 39%, draw 30%, FK Sahdag Qusar 32%.

How many goals are expected in Moik Baku vs FK Sahdag Qusar?

The model expects 2.18 goals (Moik Baku 1.16 · FK Sahdag Qusar 1.02), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Moik Baku vs FK Sahdag Qusar?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.