Football · Italy Serie D · 06/09, 16:00

Prediction: ASD CastrumFavara vs Milazzo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.25Total

ASD CastrumFavara1.24

Milazzo1

1X2

41% 29% 29%

ASD CastrumFavara Draw Milazzo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

ASD CastrumFavara 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LDWWLDWWWD

Milazzo 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLDWLDDLLL

Head-to-head

ASD CastrumFavara 1–1 Milazzo (2 last)

Milazzo1-0ASD CastrumFavara
ASD CastrumFavara1-0Milazzo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · ASD CastrumFavara 1526 · Milazzo 1425

	ASD CastrumFavara	Draw	Milazzo
Our model	40%	31%	29%
Market	42%	28%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.25 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours ASD CastrumFavara (rating 1526 vs 1425).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	ASD CastrumFavara	Milazzo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.2	0.5 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.6	0 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	0/0/100%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 4.6	0 / 2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0	1 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.20

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:04 +9’	2.15	3.20	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · ASD CastrumFavara 1–0–1 Milazzo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/01/26 Italy Serie D	Milazzo	1-0	ASD CastrumFavara
21/09/25 Italy Serie D	ASD CastrumFavara	1-0	Milazzo

Standings · Italy Serie D

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#	Team	Pts
1	Sambiase	0
1	ASD CastrumFavara	0
1	ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora	0
1	ASD Polisportiva Modica Calcio	0
1	ASD Ragusa	0
1	Calcio Avola 1949	0
1	Enna Calcio	0
1	Igea Virtus	0
1	ASD Licata	0
1	Reggina	0
1	Milazzo	0
1	SSD Athletic Club Palermo	0
1	Nissa FC	0
1	Vibonese	0
1	Vigor Lamezia	0
16	Città di Gela	-1
17	Trapani	-5
18	Siracusa	-7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	ASD CastrumFavara	Milazzo
Enna Calcio	2-2 D	1-3 L
ASD Paterno	3-1 W	0-0 D
Città di Gela	3-1 W	1-1 D
Acireale	1-1 D	1-3 L
Vigor Lamezia	2-1 W	0-0 D
ACR Messina	1-1 D	0-1 L
ASD Ragusa	1-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 1 L	0 W 3 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: ASD CastrumFavara (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

ASD CastrumFavara

LDWWLDWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/05	Enna Calcio Italy Serie D	–	2-2	–	–	D
26/04	ASD Paterno Italy Serie D	–	3-1	–	–	W
19/04	Città di Gela Italy Serie D	2-0	3-1	7	0	W
12/04	SSD Athletic Club Palermo Italy Serie D	2-0	3-0	3	5	W
02/04	Acireale Italy Serie D	0-1	1-1	6	1	D
29/03	Igea Virtus Italy Serie D	–	2-3	–	–	L
22/03	ASD Sancataldese Italy Serie D	–	1-0	–	–	W
15/03	Vigor Lamezia Italy Serie D	1-1	2-1	3	4	W
01/03	ACR Messina Italy Serie D	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
22/02	ASD Ragusa Italy Serie D	–	1-2	–	–	L

Milazzo

LLDWLDDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/05	ACR Messina Italy Serie D	–	0-1	–	–	L
26/04	Reggina Italy Serie D	–	1-2	–	–	L
19/04	Sambiase Italy Serie D	–	0-1	–	–	L
15/04	Vigor Lamezia Italy Serie D	–	0-0	–	–	D
12/04	ASD Paterno Italy Serie D	–	0-0	–	–	D
08/04	Enna Calcio Italy Serie D	0-1	1-3	2	1	L
22/03	AC Savoia 1908 Italy Serie D	–	1-0	–	–	W
15/03	Città di Gela Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
01/03	ASD Ragusa Italy Serie D	–	0-1	–	–	L
22/02	Acireale Italy Serie D	–	1-3	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in ASD CastrumFavara vs Milazzo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a ASD CastrumFavara win (41%). Probabilities: ASD CastrumFavara 41%, draw 29%, Milazzo 29%.

How many goals are expected in ASD CastrumFavara vs Milazzo?

The model expects 2.25 goals (ASD CastrumFavara 1.24 · Milazzo 1), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in ASD CastrumFavara vs Milazzo?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.