Football · Italy Serie D · 27/09, 15:00

Prediction: SSD Athletic Club Palermo vs Milazzo

Team pages: SSD Athletic Club Palermo · Milazzo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.36Total

SSD Athletic Club Palermo1.29

Milazzo1.07

1X2

41% 29% 30%

SSD Athletic Club Palermo Draw Milazzo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

SSD Athletic Club Palermo 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Milazzo 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

SSD Athletic Club Palermo 1–2 Milazzo (3 last)

SSD Athletic Club Palermo1-0Milazzo
Milazzo2-1SSD Athletic Club Palermo
Milazzo3-1SSD Athletic Club Palermo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SSD Athletic Club Palermo 1446 · Milazzo 1446

	SSD Athletic Club Palermo	Draw	Milazzo
Our model	40%	30%	29%
Market	42%	28%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.36 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Milazzo: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SSD Athletic Club Palermo	Milazzo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2.1	0.6 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 0.9	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/43/57%	25/50/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4.7	1.3 / 2.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.2	4.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.25

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
16:51 +11’	2.15	3.25	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SSD Athletic Club Palermo 1–0–2 Milazzo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/02/26 Italy Serie D	SSD Athletic Club Palermo	1-0 HT 1-0	Milazzo
05/10/25 Italy Serie D	Milazzo	2-1	SSD Athletic Club Palermo
24/08/25 Italy Serie D Cup	Milazzo	3-1 HT 2-1	SSD Athletic Club Palermo

Standings · Italy Serie D

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Reggina	4	4	0	0	13	0	12
2	Igea Virtus	4	3	1	0	13	8	10
3	Sambiase	4	3	1	0	5	2	10
4	Vibonese	4	2	1	1	11	5	7
5	Nissa FC	4	2	1	1	8	6	7
6	ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora	4	1	3	0	7	2	6
7	Milazzo	4	2	0	2	4	5	6
8	Calcio Avola 1949	4	2	0	2	7	10	6
9	ASD Licata	4	1	2	1	3	7	5
10	Modica	4	1	1	2	3	4	4
11	SSD Athletic Club Palermo	4	1	1	2	6	8	4
12	ASD CastrumFavara	4	1	1	2	5	4	4
13	Città di Gela	4	1	1	2	4	5	3
14	ASD Ragusa	4	0	2	2	4	7	2
15	Vigor Lamezia	4	0	2	2	4	9	2
16	Siracusa	4	2	2	0	7	4	1
17	Enna Calcio	4	0	1	3	0	9	1
18	Trapani	4	0	0	4	1	10	-5

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SSD Athletic Club Palermo	Milazzo
Enna Calcio	3-0 W	1-0 W
ASD Ragusa	2-1 W	3-1 W
ASD CastrumFavara	0-3 L	0-3 L
Reggina	0-1 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SSD Athletic Club Palermo

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Vibonese Italy Serie D	0-0	0-3	2	6	L
16/09	ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora Italy Serie D	0-1	1-1	4	6	D
13/09	Enna Calcio Italy Serie D	0-0	3-0	–	–	W
06/09	Siracusa Italy Serie D	–	2-4	–	–	L
03/05	ASD Ragusa Italy Serie D	–	2-1	–	–	W
26/04	AC Savoia 1908 Italy Serie D	0-2	1-3	4	5	L
19/04	Vibonese Italy Serie D	–	3-2	–	–	W
12/04	ASD CastrumFavara Italy Serie D	0-2	0-3	8	5	L
29/03	Reggina Italy Serie D	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
22/03	Nissa FC Italy Serie D	0-1	0-3	4	2	L

Milazzo

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Sambiase Italy Serie D	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
16/09	Enna Calcio Italy Serie D	–	1-0	–	–	W
13/09	ASD Ragusa Italy Serie D	2-0	3-1	6	6	W
06/09	ASD CastrumFavara Italy Serie D	0-0	0-3	0	5	L
03/05	ACR Messina Italy Serie D	–	0-1	–	–	L
26/04	Reggina Italy Serie D	–	1-2	–	–	L
19/04	Sambiase Italy Serie D	–	0-1	–	–	L
15/04	Vigor Lamezia Italy Serie D	–	0-0	–	–	D
12/04	ASD Paterno Italy Serie D	–	0-0	–	–	D
08/04	Enna Calcio Italy Serie D	0-1	1-3	2	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SSD Athletic Club Palermo vs Milazzo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a SSD Athletic Club Palermo win (41%). Probabilities: SSD Athletic Club Palermo 41%, draw 29%, Milazzo 30%.

How many goals are expected in SSD Athletic Club Palermo vs Milazzo?

The model expects 2.36 goals (SSD Athletic Club Palermo 1.29 · Milazzo 1.07), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in SSD Athletic Club Palermo vs Milazzo?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.