Football · Italy Serie D · 01/11, 14:30

Prediction: Nissa FC vs ASD CastrumFavara

Team pages: Nissa FC · ASD CastrumFavara

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.43Total

Nissa FC1.42

ASD CastrumFavara1.01

1X2

46% 28% 26%

Nissa FC Draw ASD CastrumFavara

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Nissa FC 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DWDWLLDDLL

ASD CastrumFavara 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DWLDLLLWLD

Head-to-head

Nissa FC 2–2–0 ASD CastrumFavara (4 last)

ASD CastrumFavara0-1Nissa FC
Nissa FC3-2ASD CastrumFavara
Nissa FC0-0ASD CastrumFavara
ASD CastrumFavara2-2Nissa FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nissa FC 1469 · ASD CastrumFavara 1445

	Nissa FC	Draw	ASD CastrumFavara
Our model	45%	29%	26%
Market	46%	28%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.43 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Nissa FC: 2-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nissa FC	ASD CastrumFavara
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.3	1.2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	17/83/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.7	2.3 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.3	4.2 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.25

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
17:15 +96’	1.95	3.25	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nissa FC 2–2–0 ASD CastrumFavara

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/01/26 Italy Serie D	ASD CastrumFavara	0-1 HT 0-0	Nissa FC
24/09/25 Italy Serie D	Nissa FC	3-2	ASD CastrumFavara
16/02/25 Italy Serie D	Nissa FC	0-0	ASD CastrumFavara
20/10/24 Italy Serie D	ASD CastrumFavara	2-2	Nissa FC

Standings · Italy Serie D

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Reggina	9	6	2	1	20	5	20
2	Sambiase	9	6	2	1	13	6	20
3	Vibonese	9	5	3	1	20	8	18
4	ASD Licata	9	5	2	2	12	14	17
5	Calcio Avola 1949	9	5	1	3	12	12	16
6	Milazzo	9	5	1	3	10	10	16
7	ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora	9	4	3	2	15	8	15
8	Igea Virtus	9	4	3	2	21	17	15
9	SSD Athletic Club Palermo	8	3	2	3	11	10	11
10	Città di Gela	9	2	4	3	10	8	9
11	Nissa FC	9	2	3	4	11	13	9
12	Siracusa	9	4	3	2	13	8	8
13	Vigor Lamezia	9	2	2	5	10	17	8
14	ASD CastrumFavara	9	2	2	5	10	12	8
15	Modica	8	2	1	5	7	11	7
16	Trapani	9	3	1	5	5	12	5
17	ASD Ragusa	9	0	3	6	7	16	3
18	Enna Calcio	9	0	2	7	2	22	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nissa FC	ASD CastrumFavara
Reggina	1-2 L	2-2 D
Igea Virtus	1-1 D	3-2 W
Calcio Avola 1949	2-4 L	0-1 L
Trapani	2-0 W	0-1 L
ASD Licata	1-1 D	1-1 D
Vigor Lamezia	3-1 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: ASD CastrumFavara (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nissa FC

DWDWLLDDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Sambiase Italy Serie D	0-1	0-1	1	6	L
18/10	Reggina Italy Serie D	1-2	1-2	8	6	L
11/10	ASD Ragusa Italy Serie D	1-1	1-1	6	6	D
04/10	Igea Virtus Italy Serie D	1-0	1-1	4	6	D
27/09	Vibonese Italy Serie D	0-1	0-2	8	5	L
20/09	Calcio Avola 1949 Italy Serie D	2-1	2-4	6	5	L
16/09	Trapani Italy Serie D	1-0	2-0	6	7	W
13/09	ASD Licata Italy Serie D	0-0	1-1	12	3	D
06/09	Vigor Lamezia Italy Serie D	1-0	3-1	3	3	W
17/05	Reggina Italy Serie D	0-0	0-0	3	7	D

ASD CastrumFavara

DWLDLLLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/10	Reggina Italy Serie D	1-1	2-2	3	5	D
18/10	Trapani Italy Serie D	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
11/10	Igea Virtus Italy Serie D	2-1	3-2	1	5	W
04/10	Vigor Lamezia Italy Serie D	0-0	0-2	6	6	L
27/09	Calcio Avola 1949 Italy Serie D	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
20/09	Modica Italy Serie D	–	0-1	–	–	L
16/09	ASD Licata Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
13/09	Città di Gela Italy Serie D	–	1-2	–	–	L
06/09	Milazzo Italy Serie D	0-0	3-0	5	5	W
03/05	Enna Calcio Italy Serie D	–	2-2	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nissa FC vs ASD CastrumFavara?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nissa FC win (46%). Probabilities: Nissa FC 46%, draw 28%, ASD CastrumFavara 26%.

How many goals are expected in Nissa FC vs ASD CastrumFavara?

The model expects 2.43 goals (Nissa FC 1.42 · ASD CastrumFavara 1.01), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Nissa FC vs ASD CastrumFavara?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.