Football · Italy Serie D · 08/11, 14:30

Prediction: Vigor Senigallia vs Polisportiva Pietralunghese

Team pages: Vigor Senigallia

Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.63Total
Vigor Senigallia1.74
Polisportiva Pietralunghese0.89
1X2
57% 25% 18%
Vigor Senigallia Draw Polisportiva Pietralunghese
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Vigor Senigallia 5-1-4 (W-D-L)
WWWWDLLWLL
Polisportiva Pietralunghese 2-3-5 (W-D-L)
DLLLDLWWLD
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vigor Senigallia 1505 · Polisportiva Pietralunghese 1461
Vigor SenigalliaDrawPolisportiva Pietralunghese
Our model56%26%18%
Market57%24%19%
Estimated total (ours) 2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

  • Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vigor Senigallia (rating 1505 vs 1461).
  • Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

Vigor SenigalliaPolisportiva Pietralunghese
Goals for / against (FT)1.8 / 20.5 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)0.8 / 1.70.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)17/33/50%0/60/40%
Corners (HT / FT)1.2 / 3.32.5 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)4.5 / 0.54.6 / 0.4

Standings · Italy Serie D

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 Reggina 10721 25723
2 Sambiase 10721 17823
3 Vibonese 10631 22921
4 Calcio Avola 1949 10613 161419
5 ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora 10532 16818
6 Milazzo 10514 111216
7 Igea Virtus 10433 232115
8 ASD Licata 10424 101714
9 SSD Athletic Club Palermo 9423 121014
10 Città di Gela 10343 11812
11 Nissa FC 10334 161412
12 Siracusa 10532 171011
13 Vigor Lamezia 10226 10188
14 ASD CastrumFavara 10226 11178
15 Modica 9216 7127
16 Trapani 10325 7146
17 ASD Ragusa 10037 9213
18 Enna Calcio 10037 4243

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentVigor SenigalliaPolisportiva Pietralunghese
Foligno 1-3 L 0-1 L
FC Forsempronese 0-0 D 0-0 D
Giulianova Calcio 1924 1-0 W 0-1 L
ASD Sporting Trestina 5-2 W 2-0 W
Record vs common 2 W 1 D 1 L 1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Vigor Senigallia (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vigor Senigallia

WWWWDLLWLL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
01/11 Foligno
Italy Serie D
– 1-3 –– L
25/10 U.S. Ancona
Italy Serie D
0-3 0-5 58 L
18/10 Santegidiese
Italy Serie D
– 2-0 –– W
11/10 ASD Atletico Ascoli
Italy Serie D
0-2 1-2 15 L
04/10 Teramo
Italy Serie D
2-3 4-6 14 L
27/09 FC Forsempronese
Italy Serie D
0-0 0-0 48 D
20/09 Termoli
Italy Serie D
– 2-1 –– W
16/09 Lanciano
Italy Serie D
– 2-1 –– W
13/09 Giulianova Calcio 1924
Italy Serie D
1-0 1-0 31 W
06/09 ASD Sporting Trestina
Italy Serie D
2-2 5-2 64 W

Polisportiva Pietralunghese

DLLLDLWWLD

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
01/11 FC Forsempronese
Italy Serie D
– 0-0 –– D
25/10 Giulianova Calcio 1924
Italy Serie D
0-1 0-1 34 L
17/10 ASD Sporting Trestina
Italy Serie D
– 2-0 –– W
11/10 ASD Angelana 1930
Italy Serie D
– 1-0 –– W
04/10 L'Aquila
Italy Serie D
0-2 0-3 47 L
26/09 Notaresco Calcio 1924
Italy Serie D
1-1 1-1 14 D
20/09 Maceratese
Italy Serie D
– 0-2 –– L
16/09 ASD K-Sport Montecchio
Italy Serie D
0-0 1-2 95 L
12/09 Foligno
Italy Serie D
0-0 0-1 75 L
06/09 Recanatese
Italy Serie D
– 0-0 –– D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vigor Senigallia vs Polisportiva Pietralunghese?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Vigor Senigallia win (57%). Probabilities: Vigor Senigallia 57%, draw 25%, Polisportiva Pietralunghese 18%.

How many goals are expected in Vigor Senigallia vs Polisportiva Pietralunghese?

The model expects 2.63 goals (Vigor Senigallia 1.74 · Polisportiva Pietralunghese 0.89), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Vigor Senigallia vs Polisportiva Pietralunghese?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.