Football · Italy Serie D · 08/11, 14:30
Prediction: Sestri Levante vs AC Bra
Team pages: Sestri Levante
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.07Total
Sestri Levante1.09
AC Bra0.98
1X2
Sestri Levante
Draw
AC Bra
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 66%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Sestri Levante
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
AC Bra
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sestri Levante
1–2–3
AC Bra
(6 last)
- AC Bra4-3Sestri Levante
- Sestri Levante2-1AC Bra
- Sestri Levante0-0AC Bra
- AC Bra3-0Sestri Levante
- AC Bra2-2Sestri Levante
- Sestri Levante0-1AC Bra
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sestri Levante 1488 · AC Bra 1475
| Sestri Levante | Draw | AC Bra | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 33% | 31% |
| Market | 39% | 28% | 33% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.07 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours AC Bra: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sestri Levante | AC Bra | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 1 | 0.8 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.9 | 0.6 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/43/57% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.3 / 2.6 | 2.2 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.1 | 6.6 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sestri Levante 1–2–3 AC Bra
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/04/23 Italy Serie D | AC Bra | 4-3 | Sestri Levante |
| 18/12/22 Italy Serie D | Sestri Levante | 2-1 HT 2-0 | AC Bra |
| 10/04/22 Italy Serie D | Sestri Levante | 0-0 HT 0-0 | AC Bra |
| 28/11/21 Italy Serie D | AC Bra | 3-0 | Sestri Levante |
| 16/06/21 Italy Serie D | AC Bra | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Sestri Levante |
| 03/02/21 Italy Serie D | Sestri Levante | 0-1 HT 0-1 | AC Bra |
Standings · Italy Serie D
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reggina | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 7 | 23 |
| 2 | Sambiase | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 8 | 23 |
| 3 | Vibonese | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 9 | 21 |
| 4 | Calcio Avola 1949 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 14 | 19 |
| 5 | ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 8 | 18 |
| 6 | Milazzo | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 12 | 16 |
| 7 | Igea Virtus | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 21 | 15 |
| 8 | ASD Licata | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 14 |
| 9 | SSD Athletic Club Palermo | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 14 |
| 10 | Città di Gela | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 8 | 12 |
| 11 | Nissa FC | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 14 | 12 |
| 12 | Siracusa | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 10 | 11 |
| 13 | Vigor Lamezia | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 8 |
| 14 | ASD CastrumFavara | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 8 |
| 15 | Modica | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 7 |
| 16 | Trapani | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 6 |
| 17 | ASD Ragusa | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 21 | 3 |
| 18 | Enna Calcio | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 24 | 3 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sestri Levante | AC Bra |
|---|---|---|
| Ligorna | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| ACSD Saluzzo | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Sanremese | 0-1 L | 0-3 L |
| Celle Varazze FBC | 1-1 D | 2-0 W |
| Borgosesia | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Biellesse | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| GSD Lascaris | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| USD Fezzanese | 0-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 4 D 3 L | 2 W 3 D 3 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sestri Levante
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Ligorna Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 25/10 | ACSD Saluzzo Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 18/10 | Sanremese Italy Serie D |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 11/10 | Celle Varazze FBC Italy Serie D |
0-1 | 1-1 | 0 | 5 | D |
| 04/10 | Borgosesia Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 27/09 | Biellesse Italy Serie D |
1-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 20/09 | GSD Lascaris Italy Serie D |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 16/09 | USD Fezzanese Italy Serie D |
– | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 13/09 | Alessandria Italy Serie D |
1-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 06/09 | Asti Italy Serie D |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
AC Bra
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Chisola Italy Serie D |
– | 1-5 | – | – | L |
| 25/10 | Derthona Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 8 | D |
| 18/10 | Ligorna Italy Serie D |
2-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 12 | W |
| 11/10 | ACSD Saluzzo Italy Serie D |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 07/10 | Celle Varazze FBC Italy Serie D |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 04/10 | Sanremese Italy Serie D |
– | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 20/09 | Borgosesia Italy Serie D |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 16/09 | Biellesse Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 12/09 | GSD Lascaris Italy Serie D |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 06/09 | USD Fezzanese Italy Serie D |
1-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 7 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sestri Levante vs AC Bra?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Sestri Levante win (38%). Probabilities: Sestri Levante 38%, draw 30%, AC Bra 32%.
How many goals are expected in Sestri Levante vs AC Bra?
The model expects 2.07 goals (Sestri Levante 1.09 · AC Bra 0.98), with a 54% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Sestri Levante vs AC Bra?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.