Football · Italy Serie D · 27/09, 15:00

Prediction: Nissa FC vs Vibonese

Team pages: Nissa FC · Vibonese

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.46Total

Nissa FC1.43

Vibonese1.02

1X2

46% 28% 26%

Nissa FC Draw Vibonese

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Nissa FC 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WDWDWDWDWL

Vibonese 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWLLDWWDLW

Head-to-head

Nissa FC 1–2–1 Vibonese (4 last)

Vibonese0-1Nissa FC
Nissa FC1-1Vibonese
Vibonese4-0Nissa FC
Nissa FC1-1Vibonese

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nissa FC 1555 · Vibonese 1532

	Nissa FC	Draw	Vibonese
Our model	45%	29%	26%
Market	46%	28%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.46 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nissa FC	Vibonese
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 0.8	1.8 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.1	0.8 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	63/38/0%	20/80/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.3	1 / 2.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.3	4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.20

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.02

2 (+0.5)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 19:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.95▲	Bet365 1.95
X	3.25 → 3.20▼	Bet365 3.20
2	3.50 → 3.40▼	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
16:58 +4’	1.90	3.25	3.50
19:15 +12’	1.95▲	3.20▼	3.40▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nissa FC 1–2–1 Vibonese

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/02/26 Italy Serie D	Vibonese	0-1 HT 0-1	Nissa FC
05/10/25 Italy Serie D	Nissa FC	1-1	Vibonese
05/01/25 Italy Serie D	Vibonese	4-0 HT 3-0	Nissa FC
08/09/24 Italy Serie D	Nissa FC	1-1	Vibonese

Standings · Italy Serie D

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Reggina	4	4	0	0	13	0	12
2	Igea Virtus	4	3	1	0	13	8	10
3	Sambiase	4	3	1	0	5	2	10
4	Vibonese	4	2	1	1	11	5	7
5	Nissa FC	4	2	1	1	8	6	7
6	ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora	4	1	3	0	7	2	6
7	Milazzo	4	2	0	2	4	5	6
8	Calcio Avola 1949	4	2	0	2	7	10	6
9	ASD Licata	4	1	2	1	3	7	5
10	Modica	4	1	1	2	3	4	4
11	SSD Athletic Club Palermo	4	1	1	2	6	8	4
12	ASD CastrumFavara	4	1	1	2	5	4	4
13	Città di Gela	4	1	1	2	4	5	3
14	ASD Ragusa	4	0	2	2	4	7	2
15	Vigor Lamezia	4	0	2	2	4	9	2
16	Siracusa	4	2	2	0	7	4	1
17	Enna Calcio	4	0	1	3	0	9	1
18	Trapani	4	0	0	4	1	10	-5

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nissa FC	Vibonese
Trapani	2-0 W	4-0 W
Vigor Lamezia	3-1 W	2-0 W
Acireale	0-0 D	1-0 W
Città di Gela	1-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Vibonese (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nissa FC

WDWDWDWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Calcio Avola 1949 Italy Serie D	2-1	2-4	6	5	L
16/09	Trapani Italy Serie D	1-0	2-0	6	7	W
13/09	ASD Licata Italy Serie D	0-0	1-1	12	3	D
06/09	Vigor Lamezia Italy Serie D	1-0	3-1	3	3	W
17/05	Reggina Italy Serie D	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
03/05	ASD Paterno Italy Serie D	–	4-1	–	–	W
26/04	Sambiase Italy Serie D	0-0	1-1	1	5	D
19/04	Enna Calcio Italy Serie D	3-0	3-0	5	2	W
12/04	Acireale Italy Serie D	–	0-0	–	–	D
02/04	Città di Gela Italy Serie D	1-0	1-0	6	1	W

Vibonese

DWLLDWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	SSD Athletic Club Palermo Italy Serie D	0-0	3-0	5	6	W
16/09	Igea Virtus Italy Serie D	1-1	3-4	3	5	L
12/09	Siracusa Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
06/09	Trapani Italy Serie D	3-0	4-0	2	3	W
03/05	Acireale Italy Serie D	0-0	1-0	0	7	W
26/04	Città di Gela Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
22/04	Igea Virtus Italy Serie D	–	1-2	–	–	L
19/04	SSD Athletic Club Palermo Italy Serie D	–	2-3	–	–	L
29/03	Vigor Lamezia Italy Serie D	0-0	2-0	3	1	W
22/03	ACR Messina Italy Serie D	–	0-0	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nissa FC vs Vibonese?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nissa FC win (46%). Probabilities: Nissa FC 46%, draw 28%, Vibonese 26%.

How many goals are expected in Nissa FC vs Vibonese?

The model expects 2.46 goals (Nissa FC 1.43 · Vibonese 1.02), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Nissa FC vs Vibonese?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.